Essays on Probabilistic Risk Analysis Annotated Bibliography

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The paper “ Probabilistic Risk Analysis” is a persuasive variant of the annotated bibliography on management. Authority and advancements converge in the decision-making process that abounds in every corporation. For instance, the two ideals ‘ consensus manager’ and ‘ take charge guy’ are very vital in decision-making. Historically, managers have acted as the bridge between lower and middle levels in discipline, systems of control and evaluation that are imposed on them. According to Weber and Manheim, lower echelon managers see themselves as ‘ little’ to high paid clerk hence leading to devoid of substantive critical evaluation. According to Robert Jackall, what is right in one’ s man's home may be wrong in another man’ s home.

The circumstance and environment that brings about decision-making paralysis and a lack of individual decision-making are vital in any organization. Examples are illustrated to outline how a manager fears failure, reluctance in making decisions, and the inability to make a practical decision at all hierarchical levels. Usually, when a decision is made, there is a tendency of looking up (see managers) at superior outcomes and look around at the consensus of peers before a decision is made.

Also, managers have a short-term focus, and they incorporate self-interest and personal reasons. It indicates that private interests and ambitions hinder a good rational decision to be made. Jackal goes ahead describing how individuals end up changing their jobs to avoid being accountable for the decision they made before. In essence, when you outclass your mistakes through promotion or transfer, you will succeed no matter the organisation you attend. The accountability facilitates such at all levels. Without ever expressing it, the culture and the acceptance are criticised.

When we offer a full focus on personal interests, the consequences are viable at the expense of long-term goals. However we try to run, in this case, a manager who makes poor choices and move, it is comparable to a plant as Jackal elaborates in the context. Nobody likes to loose, hence when the business collapses majority tries to find an alternative. Either they can look up (managers in this case) or others look around (their peers).


1. Looking Up and Looking Around (Jackall, 1998)

2. Choices, Values, and Frames (Kahneman & Tversky, 1984)

3. Beyond Discrete Biases: Functional and Dysfunctional Aspects of Judgmental Heuristics (Hogarth, 1981)

4. Our Proposed Perspective (Liston, 1984)

5. A Reappraisal of Probabilistic Risk Analysis (Whittaker, 1991).

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