Delphi Technique - Eltons Company Decision-Making Process - Case Study Example

Delphi Technique Name: Institution: Date: 1.0 Executive Summary This report is a review of the Delphi communication and decision making framework. In its focus, the report reviews the historical and application aspects of the technique that establishes its origin in the cold war and wide application in sensitive business decision making framework. A characteristics analysis establishes that the technique has its uniqueness in the anonymity, expert panel and opportunity to review decisions. Moreover, the process analysis establishes that the technique has a definite sequential process. Finally, a merits and demerits analysis on the technique establishes that it has its merits on the reduced face to face meetings need as well as reduced influence, while the demerits are in its slow decision making process and possible moderator bias. A practical application of the technique is evidenced in the case of ELtons Company decision making process. Table of Contents 1.0 Executive Summary 2 Table of Contents 3 2.0 Introduction 4 3.0 Key Characteristics 4 3.1 Expert Panel 4 3.2 Information Circulation 5 3.3 Anonymity 5 3.4 Opportunity to Revise Decisions 5 4.0 The Delphi Process 6 5.0 Advantages and Disadvantages of the Method 6 5.1 Advantages 6 5.2 Disadvantages 7 6.0 Examples 8 7.0 Conclusion 8 References 9 2.0 Introduction The Delhi technique has its origin on the cold war. This was the period at which war between the then world super powers USA and USSR appeared eminent. At this stage, the two sides were strategically developing attacking and defensive strategies to combat their eminent war threat. Therefore, in order to develop appropriate and sufficient military strategies, the USA military, through the government, contracted the Rand Corporation to facilitate in the strategies development challenge. Among the key issues that the corporation was required to develop strategies on were strategies that the Russian military would have applied to target the USA industrial system as well as the number of atomic bombs required to cause a specific impact level on the USA military (Keeney, McKenna & Hasson, 2010). Due to the issue sensitivity and the need to reduce face to face members influence, the corporation applied writing up of response and sharing it anonymously between panelists as an ideal manner. This led to the emergence of the famous Delphi project. The technique is applied in strategic decision making in business today for issues that require increased expert skills and are increasingly sensitive for open discussion between panelists for the fear of influence or intimidation. 3.0 Key Characteristics The Delphi communication and decision making framework in organizations is a unique approach. The framework adopts a unique patter and features in its decision making process. One such key distinguishing feature of this communication model is the establishment of an expert’s panel. 3.1 Expert Panel The Delphi decision making process seeks to develop rational and logical decisions to organizational strategic challenges. As such, in a bid to enhance and facilitate increased objectivity, the technique applies an expert’s panel. In this case, as Linkov and Steevens (2009) argued, it selects experts from diverse fields. The experts are conglomerated into respective panels based on their professions. The development of such panels is a unique characteristic that does not exists in other decision making frameworks that utilize the existing organizational managements. 3.2 Information Circulation Common organizational decision making frameworks incorporate the use of bound rational decision making. In this case, organizations result to the use of step by step management systems. In this case, the decision making framework allows for information circulation to the panelists. In this case, the feedback offered by the panelists at various stages is circulated to the rest of the panelists. The circulation of this information is a unique approach in business decision making process that allows for increased consultations (Heras, German & Martí Casadesús Fa, 2006). This is a feature that is absent in other communication and decision making frameworks in organizations. Consequently, this feature is a unique approach in organizational decision making framework. 3.3 Anonymity An additional feature in the Delphi decision making framework is the concept of anonymity. In the common decision making framework, organizations in the industry utilize the organizational management executives in their decision making. In this case, the organizational decision framework is formulated by definite and known stakeholders. On the contrary, the Delphi decision making framework uses synonymous decision makers. In this case, the anonymity in the context increases the overall organizational objectivity in the market (Mullen, 2003). Therefore, through this approach and unique concept, organizations adopting this concept and through the retained anonymity obtain increased decisions objectivity. 3.4 Opportunity to Revise Decisions One unique aspect in the Delphi decision making framework is the opportunity to revise decisions. Unlike other decision making frameworks that provide no opportunity for revisiting decisions, the Delphi decision making framework allows for decisions revisiting. In this case, through the sequential approach of circulating questionnaires the panelists have an opportunity to revise their decisions through evaluating and comparing them with peers’ options (Montana & Charnov, 2000). In this case, through peers better alternatives from peers offer others an opportunity to improve their earlier decisions. 4.0 The Delphi Process 5.0 Advantages and Disadvantages of the Method 5.1 Advantages The Delphi decision making process in organizational communication framework offers organizations an increased range of merits. On one hand, the decision making approach is conducted in writing. As such, it allows for reduced face to face meetings between stakeholders that is an imperative concept in making decisions in other approaches. Although the face to face meetings allow for increased decision making, it has an increased range of challenges. In this case, the face to face meetings face convenience challenges due to members’ availability, as it is hard to group all members at the same venue due to other organizational commitments. In this regard, Daim, Oliver and Kim (2013) argued that the Delphi organizational decision making framework solves this challenge. Instead of face to face meetings, the approach allows for written decision making approach. Thus, this approach leads to increased decisions success as the panelists can respond to the decisions questions at their convenience, thus reducing and decision making rush that increases overall decisions making quality. In addition, the Delphi decision making allows for reduced social influence in the market. One major challenge facing decision makers is the increased influence and intimidation among decision makers (Aquinas, 2006). In this regard, the decision makers are at times influenced by the charismatic decision making panel members or even intimidated or coerced into formulating biased decisions. Therefore, the development of decisions through open decision making frameworks increases decision making risks. The adoption of the Delphi approach in the market allows for increased objectivity in organizational decision making. In this case, the framework through opinion and response anonymity retention, the approach enhances increased market objectivity in the industry. 5.2 Disadvantages Despite the established Delphi technique merits to the overall organizational success, the application of this method, poses a range of strategic challenges in organizational decision making frameworks. On one hand, the approach leads to a low decision making process. As already discussed, the process is increasingly consultative. As such, the consultations end up taking longer periods before the panelists agree and establish a compromise alternative. Therefore, this process leads to longer decision making periods. Thus, the organizations utilizing this approach face the risk of delayed decision making on urgency issues that required radical response and decisional directives. As such, it is apparent that the Delphi decision making framework is inappropriate for emergency decisions development (Graf, 2002). In addition, the decision making process has its demerits in the risk of moderators bias. As argued, the decision making framework anonymity allows for the moderator influence. Consequently, the decision making approach faces the risk of increased bias as the moderator may influence the decision making approach thus influencing on the overall decision developed. 6.0 Examples A practical application of this decision making approach in projects decision making process, is the ELtons Company decision making framework. The organization has achieved increased market competitiveness through increased application of the Delphi technique. In this case, the organization has established a panel of six members in its decision making framework. However, anonymity is maintained with the panelists having no knowledge of the identity of their peers. As such, communication between the panelists in the decision making process is enacted through the organizational selected moderator. In order to enhance increased anonymity, the organizational reverted to the use of modern technology in its application. As such, the organization uses electronic communication through emails, where the moderator and the panelists communicate through the emails on a secure organizational information system. The Delphi decision making process is divided into two key stages namely the short listing and judging stages respectively (Finkler, Kovner & Jones, 2007). However, each of these stages is comprised of approximately three rounds. At the first stage, the moderator requires the panelists to respond to a strategic issue through listing alternative strategic options into mitigating the challenge. The established alternatives are combined and circulated amongst panel members and their feedback sought. At this stage, the panelists agree on a few alternatives that lead the process onto the second stage on judging. In this case, the panelists offer their preferred alternatives with reasons that are circulated to others and feedback sought. This process persists until a majority of the panelists attain a consensus. 7.0 Conclusion In summary, this report reviews the concept of Delphi technique in decision making. In this case, the report reviews the historical an application of the concept. As such, the report establishes that the technique has its origin in the cold war and is widely applied in developing highly sensitive organizational decisions. Moreover, the technique has its application characteristics in anonymity, experts’ panel and opportunity to review decisions. As such, these qualities enhance the attainment of the technique merits including reduced face to face meetings and social influence reduction. In addition, the approach faces moderator bias and slow decision making risks. In addition, a review of the approach process establishes that the approach is systematic and sequential. Therefore, this report analysis recommends the adoption of this approach in the organizational communication and decision making framework. References Aquinas, P. G. (2006). Organizational behaviour: Concepts realities applications and challenges. New Delhi: Excel Books. Daim, T. U., Oliver, T., & Kim, J. (2013). Research and technology management in the electricity industry: Methods, tools and case studies. London: Springer. Finkler, S. A., Kovner, C. T., & Jones, C. B. (2007). Financial management for nurse managers and executives. Philadelphia, Pa: Saunders Elsevier. Graf, H. G. (2002). Economic forecasting for management: Possibilities and limitations. Westport CT: Quorum Books. Heras, S. I., German, A. L., & Martí Casadesús Fa. (2006). A Delphi study on motivation for ISO 9000 and EFQM. The International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, 23(7), 807-827. Keeney, S., McKenna, H., & Hasson, F. (2010). The Delphi Technique in Nursing and Health Research. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Linkov, I., & Steevens, J. (2009). Nanomaterials: Risks and benefits. Dordrecht: Springer. Montana, P. J., & Charnov, B. H. (2000). Management. Hauppauge, N.Y: Barron's. Mullen, P. M. (2003). Delphi: Myths and reality. Journal of Health Organization and Management, 17(1), 37-52. Read More