Data Analysis and Interpretation - Assignment Example

Demographic Data Analysis and Interpretation 1. Estimating the average population growth rate between 2005 and 2015 in Nigeria using the exponential growth rates: Solution: Where; pt=181562000, P0=141190000 t=10 years r= exponential population growth rate 2. Estimating the likely total population of Nigeria in 2025, based on the results of the 2015 population growth rate in (Q.1): Solution: Where; Pt = P0=181562000 t=10 years r= 0.02457 3. Estimating the Crude birth rates (CBR) of Nigeria for years 2005 and 2015: Solution: For year 2005, CBR will be; For year 2015, CBR will be; 4. Estimating the General fertility rates (GFR) of Nigeria for the years 2005 and 2015: Solution: For year 2005, the GFR will be; For year 2015, the GFR will be; 5. To estimate the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of Nigeria for the years 2005 and 2015: Solution: For year 2005 the TFR is; and, For year 2005 the TFR is; 6. To estimate the median age of all population of Nigeria in year 2005 and year 2015: Solution: The median age for year 2005; The median age is at Then calculate the cumulative frequencies: 24985, 44778, 61703, 76485, 89518, 100648, ... , 141190. The 70595th position is in CF of 76485 Using the formula: From the CF obtained; L=14.5, CF =61703, F=14782 and I=5 years The median age for year 2015; The median age is at Then calculate the cumulative frequencies: 29639, 55253, 78084, 97087, 113272, ... , 181562. The 90781th position is in CF of 97087, Using the formula: From the CF of the median; L=14.5, C =78084, F=19003 and I=5 years 7. Estimating the dependency ratio of all population in Nigeria for year 2005 and year 2015; For year 2005 the D.R is; Dependants per 100 independent persons. For year 2015 the D.R is; Dependants per 100 independent persons. 8. Estimating the sex ratio of population aged 65 and over in Nigeria for year 2005 and year 2015; For year 2005 the S.R is; men per 100 women For year 2015 the D.R is; men per 100 women 9. Discussion on Changes in demographic characteristics of Nigeria between 2005 and 2015. The exponential average population growth rate of Nigeria between 2005 and 2015 was 2.547% per annum and if this trend continues then the geometrically projected population of the country will reach 233,478,000 by the year 2025. This projection will be achieved assuming that the country’s population will remain stable with a net migration of Zero and the birth rates and mortality rates remain constant. On fertility rates, it can be concluded that fertility levels in Nigeria have declined notably between the years 2005 and 2015. This can be attested by the analysis involving Crude Birth Rates (CBR), General Fertility Rates (GFR) and Total Fertility Rates (TFR). On CBR, the fertility levels declined from 42 births in year 2005 to 38 births per 1000 women aged 15 – 49 years in the year 2015. This decline concurs with the decline analyzed by the GFR whereby the fertility levels reduced from 184.43 to 163.91 births per 1000 persons in the same periods of time. Similarly, the TFR analysis also shows then same decline in fertility levels. In the year 2005 the TFR was 5.8 children per woman in the Nigerian population and this decreased to 5.19 children per woman in the year 2015. Therefore, it can be concluded that the fertility rates in Nigeria decreased between the years 2005 and 2005. This decline might be attributed to rigorous campaigns done worldwide on family planning programmes that wanted to achieve economically sustainable families. Another worth noting population characteristic that can be used to check the population aging factor is the median age which has been analyzed above. The median age increased slightly from 17.51 years to 17.84 years. The median age measures the centre-most position of ages if they were to be arranged in an ascending order. According to the median age analysis, over 50% of the population is aged below 18 years in both year 2005 and year 2015. This assertion clearly indicates that most Nigerians are young people hence the population of Nigeria is of a young age population structure. In conclusion, it is noted that Nigeria in both 2005 and 2015 is a young age population structure and the population aging factor has not occurred in the country. This can also be shown by the output below which is similar to a population pyramid obtain from Microsoft Excel software. 10. Characteristics of the theory of demographic transition and its components (death rates and birth rates) and impact on population growth and age distribution of the world since 1950 in both developed and developing countries. Demographic Transition (DT) refers to the translation from high birth and mortality rates to low birth and mortality rates as a nation develops from a pre-industrial to industrialized economic system. The Demographic transition is in three stages as result of interaction features between fertility and mortality. The fertility and mortality interactions were driven by socio-economic forces with mortality declining first then followed by fertility rates. The reduction in fertility rates was caused by effective industrialization and urbanization process. Furthermore, industrialization is associated with increased formal education, requirement of productive forces in industries as result change in societal norms in order to control fertility. The three stages of Demographic Transition are together with their impact on population growth are: The first stage is based on before industrial revolution era where the mortality ates and fertility rates were at the peak and changed frequently due to natural occurrences like presence of droughts, presence of diseases and presence of famine which lead to reproducing more constantly hence formation of a young age population. Modern methods of planning families and use of contraceptives were actually not in place for controlling population. Therefore, fertility rates were only controlled by the disability of women bearing any more children. The second stage involved fall in death rates and constant high birth rates causing population to have a natural increase. The variations causing this stage in developed countries such as the ones in the continent of Europe began during the agrarian revolution in between years 1700 – 1800 (18th century) and were originally very slow. From year 1800 – 1900 (20th century) the decrease in mortality rates in countries that were less developed started being significantly quicker in population growth. The third stage involved the demographic set-up being stable through decrease in the fertility rates and mortality rates. Many aspects contributed to the resulting decrease in mortality rates and fertility rates, However such aspects are not limited to speculation but include; education, women literacy, improved medical care, industrialization, urbanization and many other socio-economic developmental factors lead to this stage. References: Boongaarts, J, 2008, Fertility Transition in Developing Countries, Progress or stagnation Studies in Family planning, 3(39): 105-110 Shyrock, SH and Siegel, JS, 1976, Methods and Techniques of Demography, Heinnmann, London. Read More