The paper "Long-Term Population Projections Produced by the UN, the WB, USCB, IIASA and PRB " is a perfect example of a marketing assignment. a. The papers mention that several organizations have made population projections. Among others are approaches used by the Australian Intergenerational Report, the United Nations (UN), the World Bank (WB), US Census Bureau (USCB), IIASA-International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, and the Population Reference Bureau (PRB). i) Briefly discuss the projection methods used by each organization. The population is crucial for any country’ s growth. It is the number of people that determines the workforce in a given state and also the health of the citizens.
However, there is a need to estimate the population for future plans. This is known as population projection. In order to determine the future population of a particular country, one will have to examine the current number of people according to the census carried out. After that, make some assumptions about future deaths, births and migration that may occur. The population projection is paramount as it is used in planning activities of a state. In this paper, we will discuss population projection in-depth (O’ Neill, Brian, Deborah, Melanie, & Markos, 2001). Organizations such as; the United Nations (UN), US Census Bureau (USCB), the World Bank (WB), the Population Reference Bureau (PRB), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and the Australian Intergenerational Report are usually involved in the determination of population projection.
To start with is the Australian Intergenerational Report, which is a report produced by the government every five years. It is meant to estimate the population and economic growth over the next 40 years. It uses the cohort component method to determine the population projections.
Cohort-Component is a standard approach that involves assumptions about age-sex, future mortality, migration and future fertility. The method divides populations into small manageable groups in which it operates on. The United Nation (UN) is an organization that was formed to endorse international relations. It was formed after the Second World War and its main function at that time was to keep peace among different countries. The United Nations, US Census Bureau and the Population Reference Bureau (PRB) also use the cohort-component method and the headship rate method of household projections.
The World Bank uses the time series method to determine the population projection. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis combines cohort – component and Period life expectancy. The period life expectancy gives the average number of years one is expected to live if the constant age mortality rate applies for the rest of their life. ii. Compare and contrast the main characteristics of the long-term population projections produced by the UN, the WB, USCB, IIASA and PRB (mention at least two points for each organization). [12 Marks] A table showing the main characteristics of the long-term population (DeLong, John, Oskar and Hamilton, 2013) The table above shows the similarities and differences that exist among the five organization when they are used to determine population projection.
One of the similarities is that they have a population projection of more than 40 years. The United Nation shows some similarities with the rest of the organization in that it has used scenarios as a method of approach. It is unique because it has the highest rate of fertility. The World Bank has a projection time of 155 years which makes it differ with the rest of the organization.
Its number of output scenario is three which makes it unique. IISA is the only organization with a projection period of 104 years (O'Neill, Brian, and Deborah, 2001). It is also unique in that it’ s the only one that uses the probability projections approach. The USCB and PRB are common in that their scenario assumption input are all one. However, they have different projection time.