National Risk Register for Belgium - Term Paper Example

Risk Assessment: Belgium Name: Tutor: Course: Date: Table of contents Table of contents 2 List of figures 4 List of Tables 5 1.0 Introduction 6 1.1 Over view of the Hazards and vulnerabilities in Belgium 6 1.1.1 Marine pollution 6 1.1.2 High public debt 7 1.1.3 Traffic congestion 7 1.1.4 Heat wave 8 1.1.5 Terrorism in Brussels 8 1.1.6 Industrial explosions and fires 9 1.1.7 Schmallenberg virus epidemic 9 1.1.8 Nuclear Phase out 9 1.1.9 Train crash 10 1.1.10 Storms and floods 10 1.2 Risk identification and assessment 10 Table 1: Category of risks 11 1.2.1 Analysis of the risks 12 Figure 1: Risk assessment register-Belgium 13 Table 2: Risk matrix of risks in Belgium 14 Figure 2: FTA for ‘National Losses’ of risks in Belgium 20 Table 3: Risk action plan 22 References 25 Bond, P. (2004). Belgian gas explosion: questions remain unanswered. World Socialist Website. https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2004/09/belg-s03.html. 25 Davies, R. (2014, August 28). Floods across Belgium after 36 Hours of Rain. Floodlist. http://floodlist.com/europe/floods-belgium-36-hours-rain. 25 Mail online (2001). Eight die in Belgian train crash. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-33755/Eight-die-Belgian-train-crash.html. 26 List of figures Table of contents 2 List of figures 4 List of Tables 6 1.0 Introduction 7 1.1 Over view of the Hazards and vulnerabilities in Belgium 7 1.1.1 Marine pollution 7 1.1.2 High public debt 8 1.1.3 Traffic congestion 8 1.1.4 Heat wave 9 1.1.5 Terrorism in Brussels 9 1.1.6 Industrial explosions and fires 10 1.1.7 Schmallenberg virus epidemic 10 1.1.8 Nuclear Phase out 10 1.1.9 Train crash 11 1.1.10 Storms and floods 11 1.2 Risk identification and assessment 11 Table 1: Category of risks 12 1.2.1 Analysis of the risks 13 Figure 1: Risk assessment register-Belgium 14 Table 2: Risk matrix of risks in Belgium 15 Figure 2: FTA for ‘National Losses’ of risks in Belgium 21 Table 3: Risk action plan 23 References 26 Bond, P. (2004). Belgian gas explosion: questions remain unanswered. World Socialist Website. https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2004/09/belg-s03.html. 26 Davies, R. (2014, August 28). Floods across Belgium after 36 Hours of Rain. Floodlist. http://floodlist.com/europe/floods-belgium-36-hours-rain. 26 Mail online (2001). Eight die in Belgian train crash. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-33755/Eight-die-Belgian-train-crash.html. 27 List of Tables Table of contents 2 List of figures 4 List of Tables 6 1.0 Introduction 8 1.1 Over view of the Hazards and vulnerabilities in Belgium 8 1.1.1 Marine pollution 8 1.1.2 High public debt 9 1.1.3 Traffic congestion 9 1.1.4 Heat wave 10 1.1.5 Terrorism in Brussels 10 1.1.6 Industrial explosions and fires 11 1.1.7 Schmallenberg virus epidemic 11 1.1.8 Nuclear Phase out 11 1.1.9 Train crash 12 1.1.10 Storms and floods 12 1.2 Risk identification and assessment 12 Table 1: Category of risks 13 1.2.1 Analysis of the risks 14 Figure 1: Risk assessment register-Belgium 15 Table 2: Risk matrix of risks in Belgium 16 Figure 2: FTA for ‘National Losses’ of risks in Belgium 22 Table 3: Risk action plan 24 References 27 Bond, P. (2004). Belgian gas explosion: questions remain unanswered. World Socialist Website. https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2004/09/belg-s03.html. 27 Davies, R. (2014, August 28). Floods across Belgium after 36 Hours of Rain. Floodlist. http://floodlist.com/europe/floods-belgium-36-hours-rain. 27 Mail online (2001). Eight die in Belgian train crash. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-33755/Eight-die-Belgian-train-crash.html. 28 1.0 Introduction Belgium is a country in Western Europe with a population of 11 million people inhabited by mainly Flemish and Dutch speaking communities, and occupies 30,528 km2 of land mass. Temperatures range between 30C and 180C. However, the country faces a number of environmental problems due to its location, industrialization and high population density. Over 97 percent of the population is urban with Flanders being densely populated. Life expectancy is 79.65years with deaths caused mainly by respiratory disorders and vascular and heart disorders. This paper analyzes, using a risk register, ten risks associated with Belgium. These risks are; high public debt, traffic congestion, heat wave, terrorism, marine pollution, industrial explosions and fires, Schmallenberg virus epidemic, nuclear phase out, train crash and gales and storms. 1.1 Over view of the Hazards and vulnerabilities in Belgium 1.1.1 Marine pollution The coast of Belgium is adjacent to the busiest shipping route globally, the Strait of Dover. There is a lot of traffic from the port of Ostend, Zeebrugee and Antwerp which flow in and out of the Belgian territorial sea. With narrow shipping lanes, the intense traffic causes serious pollution risks mainly from potential collisions. For example, the collisions between two vessels ‘Tricolor’, a car carrier and ‘Vicky’, an oil tanker from Turkey caused major spills in 2000. Faure (2006, p.121) observes that a lot of illegal operational discharges are taking place within the Belgian territory with more than five hundred cases of oil residue contaminations reported. While it may be possible to have the discharges illegal or accidentally pouring into the sea, the risk of this pollution is huge. For about eight to twelve hours, oil spill floats on water from which illegal discharges takes only twenty minutes. 1.1.2 High public debt In 1993, Belgian public debt stood at 135 percent but reduced in 2007 (84%) then increased again to 97 percent in 2010 (Aneja, et al. 2011). The primary spending on the part of government has been lower than its total revenues for the years between 1985 and 2008. Fiscal policies and tax reforms imposed on the government of Belgium by the European Monetary Union (EMU) led to the public debt wiping off almost 40 percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). There is increased scrutiny from the investors, political uncertainty and higher debt stock (Aneja, et al. 2011, p.12). This also affected the formation of new government in 2011. The Belgian sovereign is exposed to refinancing risk given the large funding requirements and high public debt ratio. In the event of financial crisis, there is a possibility of deep protracted recession and a fall in debt ratio (Bruggenman & Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2013, p. 58). This means that the repayment capability of various sectors will be constrained asset price correction and increased attitude towards risk. 1.1.3 Traffic congestion Traffic congestion in Belgium is one of the biggest in Europe. A long chain of traffic delays delivery of goods and basic services that are vital for the growth of the economy. The congestion in traffic could be caused by narrow roads or lack of proper traffic coordination. Commuters of big cities like Antwerp and Brussels spend about 65 hours in traffic jam. Brussels during peak hours faces serious traffic congestion involving public transportation and private vehicles (IBM Corporation, 2015, p.2). The number of unproductive hours owing to this congestion is 49 percent higher that second worst city in Europe (p.7). This is further worsened by lack of centralized oversight in transportation, traffic, governance and control. The situation is also worsened by the presence of a single airport in Brussels with Zeebrugge and port of Antwerp sharing 80 percent of Belgian maritime traffic. Besides, car ownership in Belgium being the highest in Europe, there is a preference for road transport in long distance haulage which leads to severe competition for road space. 1.1.4 Heat wave In the summer of 2003, a severe heat wave hit the larger Europe including Belgium. Dangerous climatic changes are likely to happen and will be adverse in Belgium. According to Ypersele and Marbaix (2004, p. 1), continued dependency on coal and oil will increase the chance of rise in global temperatures and increase in greenhouse emissions. Rise in global temperatures in the form of heat waves could affect specific species of trees like hornbeam, beech and oak which will then be vulnerable to parasites and diseases. Rise in cardio-vascular diseases will increase morbidity and mortality of Belgian citizens. In 1994, about 236 people died in Belgium due to heat wave while in 2003, 1300 people majority of which are above 65 years (p.6). Livestock sector and forestry, the arable sector and green fodder supply are the most hit areas by the heat waves (UNEP, 2004). 1.1.5 Terrorism in Brussels The threat of terrorism is as recent as March 22, 2016 that hit Brussels. Two blasts occurred at the airport and another in a busy metro station. More than 30 people died and another 200 were injured in the incidences. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) said that they were responsible for the attack. Historically, about 140 terror attacks have taken place between 1970 and 2014 causing 230 injuries and 40 deaths in the country (START, 2016). This follows an attack on Paris in 2015 where more than 100 people died. Airports and aircrafts have been major targets of terrorists with many being executed by suicide attackers. Terrorist Financing (TF) poses a great risk to Belgium. Individuals and terrorist groups in present in Belgium collect funds and recruit funds in Belgium of jihadist in the Middle East or Near Middle East. Federal prosecutor in 2013 prosecuted 150 cases involving terrorism and terrorism financing (FAFT, 2015). 1.1.6 Industrial explosions and fires Explosions from oil tanks, gas and industrial fires is a great risk to the lives of citizens in Belgium. In 2004, 21 people were killed by a gas pipeline explosion in a small town of Ghislenghien (Bond, 2004). More than 50 others suffered injuries. The overall cost was 100million euros (Fogleman, 2012). There was leakage in the pipeline which may have been damaged by agricultural machinery, heavy rain and soil erosion. Coal mine accidents involving fire have been fatal in Belgium. In the history of Belgium, coal mine fires was the worst to happen in 1956 after it killed 262 workers at the Marcinelle mine. Mines are narrower and deep in Belgium unlike in the United States. Other triggers of chemical accidents are system and process failures originating from human and technical errors (Gupta & Nair, 2012, p. 2). Poor and hazardous waste processing is another cause. 1.1.7 Schmallenberg virus epidemic Schmallenberg virus (SBV) caused an epidemic in ruminants after emerging in 2011 in Europe. The disease leads to malformed newborn in cows and sheep, stillbirths and epizootic outbreak of abortion. Between 1-4% of the calves were malformed, stillborn or aborted in 2011 and 2012 alone. Milk production drops by 40-90% while sale of beef drastically decreased (Poskin, 2016). Treatment costs are up at 65 euros per animal with further treatment costs shooting up to 107 euros (Martinelle, et al. 2012, p.287). 1.1.8 Nuclear Phase out The national policy of Belgium was codified in 2003 to phase out the nuclear energy as a means of producing commercial power. The policy provides for a 40-year limit to put the existing plants into operation and prohibit construction of new nuclear plants (Economie, 2014). This phase out has a number of drawbacks. One, the prices of electricity will increase dramatically. Two, Belgium will not be able to meet its climate change targets and energy security. However, a special study (GEMIX) was commissioned by the government to investigate nuclear in terms of sustainable development, competitiveness it has on the Belgian economy and its security to supply of power. The pressure to close the nuclear reactors is still imminent even after the decision to prolong Tihange 1 and Doel 1&2 reactors for 10 years up to 2025 (Economie, 2014, p.78). The seven nuclear reactors produce a total of 5.8MW and may need to be replaced with renewable and gas-fired capacity. 1.1.9 Train crash Two major train crashes in Belgium have caused a number of lives. The Halle train collision in Buizingen killed 18 people and injured 162 on the morning of February 15, 2010. The signal was passed when the danger had already been seen. Earlier in 2001, two trains collided in the village of Pecrot killing 8 people and injuring more than 12 others (Mail Online, 2001). The difference in language of communication between the drivers was the cause of the collision. One driver spoke French while the other was Dutch. Also, one driver ignored the red signal and drove the train. 1.1.10 Storms and floods July of 2014 saw one of the most severe flooding in Belgium as it did to most of the farms in 2007. The most recent large coastal flood to hit Belgium was in 1953, and this could be attributed to a warming climate. The most affected area was Ostend and Antwerp killing more than 40 people. There were smaller dikes that the floods breached. The magnitude at which the floods are occurring is now common than before. Constant floods hit the areas Brussels, Walloon Brabant, Liege and Hainaut (Davies, 2014). Most of the floods came without warning catching people unawares with some at the middle of their sleep. There is limited time to evacuate the vulnerable population especially in the low lying areas. 1.2 Risk identification and assessment Risks are a combination of hazards of negative events with likelihoods of occurrence and can impact human, economy, social relations or politics and the environment. In this report, the risks are identified and assessed to determine their influence on the above factors. The impact and likelihood of occurrence are the two parameters that are used in this report to analyze the risks. To start with, the risks were categorized as; Technical Economic Political Environmental Social The categories are listed in the table below. Table 1: Category of risks Category Risk Threats Technical Industrial fires and explosions Acts of vandalism, negligence and human oversight Train crash Negligence of railway code, political protests Political Nuclear phase out Political pressures, political will Terrorism Increasing extremism, radicalization of youth, terrorist funding Economic Huge public debt Fiscal imbalances, rising unemployment Traffic congestion Loss of income, pollution and emissions on roads Environmental Marine pollution Loss of fish species, increased acts of hooliganism Storms and floods Loss of livelihoods Heat wave Deaths Social Schmallenberg virus epidemic Lowered livestock productivity 1.2.1 Analysis of the risks After categorizing the risks, it was critical to assess the individual risks in terms of impact and likelihood. The impact can be low to high but affects the categories of human, economic, environmental, political and social. For example, terrorism has huge impact on human live, leads to losses in the economy as flights are rerouted for some time. For this analysis, the scale for assessing the impact of risks is given as; Very Low (VL): No human lives lost, minimal financial loss, no loss to the environment, does not dampen social relations between people or countries. Assigned value 1 Low (L): Less than 10 lives lost, less than $5000 in costs, low damage to flora and fauna, low social differences. Assigned value 3 Medium (M): Between 10 and 40 people killed, $5000-$10000 in costs, small area destroyed with effect on wild life. Assigned value 5 High (H): Between 40 and 100 people killed, $10000-$20000 in costs, relatively larger area is destroyed containing fish, trees and wildlife. Assigned value 7 Very High (VH): More than 100 people killed, over $20,000 in costs, large area destroyed containing wildlife, vegetations and air is dampened, and greater tension and strain on human relations. Assigned value 9 The next step is to assess the risks in terms of likelihood or frequency of occurrence. Although it can be subjective given that it has to be treated as qualitative or quantitative, the likelihood has to be defined. This paper adopted the following scale for determining the likelihood of the occurrence of risks in the Belgium case. Very Low (VL): Extremely unlikely to happen. It has not happened in Belgium. Assigned value 1 Low (L): Unlikely to happen and it does so once in ten years. Assigned value 2 Medium (M): Likely to happen once in three years. Assigned value 3 High (H): Very likely to be experienced once a year. Assigned value 4 Very likely (VL): Highly likely to happen even in close future. Assigned value 5 The risk assessment will be established following the table below. Figure 1: Risk assessment register-Belgium The risks were then evaluated in the risk register as shown below Table 2: Risk matrix of risks in Belgium ID# Risk Effects Impact (I) Likelihood (L) Risk score I*L Responsibility Actions recommended 1 Marine pollution Harm to marine life especially fish and endangered sea trees M(5) H(4) 20 Coast municipalities, port authorities and Flemish region Assessment capability of incidence using sea surveillance and aerial reconnaissance. Contingency planning and use of command or control units (Faure, 2006). Stockpile of public resources for initial quick action. Use of external resources such as private environmental cleaners. Use dispersant, storage tanks, skimmers and containment booms to combat oil and chemical pollution. 2 Traffic congestion Violates the EU transport policy on clear transport routes. Not suitable for fast foods and perishable products. A threat to renewal of fleets given the low profitability (IBM Corporation, 2015). Increased emissions and fuel costs. Reduction in the commercial speed of public transport. H (7) VH(5) 35 Federal government and traffic code regulators Free public transport for civil servants on weekdays. Encourage commuters to use the metro, bus or train. Stimulate the new cycling culture. Intensify police and camera controls to reduce accidents and congestion in future. 3 High public debt Low fiscal sustainability. Vulnerable to recession and fragmentation in the labor market. Political instability. H (7) VH(5) 35 Federal Government of Belgium Issue treasury certificates in the form of Belgium Treasury Bills (BTB) and euro (Aneja, et al. 2011). Issue government bonds in both medium term notes and the euro. 4 Heat wave Disappearance of cold winters. Increased frequency of heavy rains and storms (Ypersele & Marbaix, 2004). Loss of natural wetlands. Coastal erosion and floods during storms. Transport restrictions and massive power cuts. VH (9) M(3) 27 Government of Belgium. United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) Joint effort against global warming. Use of alternative sources of energy such as solar and wind. 5 Terrorism Loss of life. Instills fear in citizens. Destruction of property and infrastructure. VH (9) M(3) 27 Federal Government of Belgium. International Police on Terrorism. Police forces and intelligence (military and civil) are identifying terrorism financing and terror activities (FAFT, 2015). Cooperation with international intelligence organization to arrest and extradite perpetrators of terrorism. Stiff penalties and sentences to the perpetrators. Terrorism insurance. 6 Industrial explosions and fires Loss of life and destruction to property H (7) L(2) 14 Fire department. St. John Ambulance. Government of Belgium Testing stations for safety in mining (Fogleman, 2012). Social insurance for miners and their families. Property insurance against fire 7 Schmallenber Virus (SBV) Financial losses to dairy and beef farmers. M(5) L(2) 10 Department of Agriculture. Centre for Disease Control (CDC). Use of multi-stakeholder investigation and surveillance system. Study the pathogenesis of SBV. Vaccination of unaffected (seronegative) animals (Poskin, 2016). Insurance of animals against disease outbreaks. 8 Nuclear phase out Loss of about 1.8MW of power by 2020 (Economie, 2014). Many households will run out of electricity. Additional power will have to be imported from neighboring countries. VH(9) L(2) 18 Government of Belgium Pursue other sources of energy such as gas, solar and wind 9 Train crash Loss of lives. Destruction of property. Instills fear and confidence among commuters on using the train as a means of transport (Mail Online, 2001). Protests from union leaders and politicians. H(7) M(3) 21 Ministry of transport A common language for the railway tunnel (mainly French and English). Observe railway signals. Modernize the railway network of the country. 10 Storms and floods Destruction of basic infrastructure such as water and electricity. Ruin and total destruction to crops and livestock (Davies, 2014). VH(9) M(3) 27 National Climate Adaptation Strategy of Belgium. Design of urban drainage systems. Develop barriers and delta works. Create storm surge barriers and system of dikes. Evacuation facilities and alert system required. From the matrix table above, the risk score for traffic congestion and huge public debt were at 35. This indicates that the government should take this as a priority in cabinet meetings to resolve the problem because in the long-term it will lead to civil strife and political unrest. Secondly, storms and floods, terrorism, and heat wave followed at risk score of 27 each. This shows that the regional and state departments should be involved in security measures to curb terror and reduce the environmental effects of climate change. Finally, the other risks can be handled at a local level which also involves taking an insurance cover for industrial fires and risks against disease outbreaks. National Losses ID# Risk Losses 1 Marine pollution National: Greater destruction of the physical environment with potential loss in tourism and national heritage Industry: Fishing industry likely to register lower productivity in fish production within the Belgian territorial seas Population: Loss of identity and sense of belonging as ‘a people of Belgium’ Individual : Reduction in chances of individuals making a livelihood in fishing and tourism 2 Traffic congestion National: Loss of revenue to the government in the form of work time and emissions Industry: Transport industry makes losses especially for public service vehicles Population: Emissions and damage to the environment creates a health concerns for the residents. Individual: Reduced productivity of individuals 3 High public debt National: Reduces the financial capability status of Belgium Industry: Finance sector unable to gain from sovereign bonds Population: Rise in tension and political differences among the Belgian people Individuals: Reduced incomes to individuals as tax is raised to pay the public debt 4 Heat wave National: Loss of lives and productive population Industry: Reduced productivity in the livestock sector and forestry, the arable sector and green fodder supply Population: Strain of health facilities as people are admitted to hospitals Individual: Misery and doom to individuals especially those aged above 65 years with cardio-vascular diseases 5 Terrorism National: Financial losses from destruction of infrastructure and disruptions of flights Industry: Airline, tourism and hospitality sectors experiences reduction in customer numbers Population: Creates fear and anarchy in the population Individual: Loss of sense of security and protection 6 Industrial explosions and fires National: Erodes investor confidence and strains the health sector Industry: Financial losses to the mining investors who will have to undergo stringent measures Population: Evacuation and displacement of the population Individual: Loss of live and livelihood 7 Schmallenber Virus (SBV) Nation: Concern over the epidemic leads to panic and financial losses Industry: Farmers make losses in dairy and quality of animals sired Population: Reduction in livestock quality reduces earning power of farmers Individual: Greater financial losses to individual farmers 8 Nuclear phase out Nation: Loss of 1.8MW of electricity and more expenditure of power imports in 2025 Industry: Loss of jobs to nuclear plant workers and financial performance of the nation Population: Lack of electricity will lead to social and financial strain Individual: Reduced chances to better livelihoods 9 Train crash Nation: Loss of lives and financial losses to the department of railways Industry: Reduction in customer numbers preferring to use the railway Population: Fear in the population and loss of income Individual: Loss of income and life 10 Storms and floods Nation: Destruction of government installations and infrastructure Industry: Huge financial losses to the industry and to the economy Population: Mass displacement of the vulnerable population without amenities Individual: Misery and desperation to families and individuals Fault tree analysis (FTA) Fault trees attempt to find out the root cause of the problem or risk. In this case, the top event is ‘National Losses’ which is caused by a number of other causes. Figure 2: FTA for ‘National Losses’ of risks in Belgium From the figure above, there are 2-AND and 5-OR gates. This indicates that the likelihood of occurrence the top event is increased as more risks contribute to the sub-events. For example, the probability of environmental risks occurring is much higher than social risks. We know that for an OR-gate: P(Q) = P(A) + (PB) and, AND-gate: P(Q) = P(A) *P(B) Supposing the probability of marine pollution is (0.4); heat wave (0.23) and storms and floods (0.15) This implies that P (environmental risks occurring) = P(Marine Pollution) + P(Storms and Floods) + P(Heat wave) =0.4 + 0.15 + 0.23 =0.78 The value 0.78 is the probability that environmental events will occur in the near future. This value is quite high and indicates that more attention should be given to these risks as they lead to higher national losses. On the other hand, economic risks have an OR-gate and an AND-gate. If we estimate the probabilities of the following events to be; P(High Public Debt): 0.5; P(Poor transport policy): 0.03; Narrow roads (0.15) Then we have P(Traffic congestion) = P(Poor transport policy) + p(Narrow roads) =0.03 + 0.15 =0.18 On the contrary, P(Economic risks) = P(High public debt) + P(traffic congestion) =0.5 + 0.18 =0.68 In comparison, environmental risks (0.78) have higher probability of occurrence compared to economic risks. This partially implies that environmental risks are more likely to lead to economic risks and also national losses. National losses could mean dwindling finances, loss of lives and strained relationships between people and states. Action Plan Some actions have been recommended to deal with the individual risk as shown in the risk matrix table above. However, financial costs will be incurred in improving or insuring the respective risks. According to trading economics, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Belgium in 2014 was US$531 billion which represents 0.86% of the global economy (Trading economics, 2016). If 1% of the GDP will be allocated to the risks identified then the total revenue allocation will be US$5.3billion. From the discussion of the individual risks, allocation will be given as follows; Table 3: Risk action plan Category Category allocation (US$ billions) Risk Individual risk allocation (US$ millions) Rationale Timeline Technical (20%) 1.06 Industrial fires and explosions (40%) 424 To buy industrial fire equipment, establish fire control policies and monitoring services May 2016 –Dec 2016 Train crash (60%) 636 To expand the railway and purchase new high speed trains September 2016 – February 2018 Political (20%) 1.06 Nuclear phase out (40%) 424 Funding to alternative sources such as solar and wind energy January 2017 – March 2021 Terrorism (60%) 636 Prosecute and empower anti-terrorism police. Investigate terrorism financing May 2016 – June 2017 Economic (25%) 1.325 Huge public debt (50%) 662 Pay some of the public debt August 2016 Traffic congestion (50%) 662 Expand roads and create flyovers June 2016 – December 2018 Environmental (30%) 1.59 Marine pollution (40%) 636 Clean Belgian territorial waters. Establish zoos for endangered species May 2016 – June 2017 Storms and floods (30%) 477 Construct dikes July 2016 – March 2017 Heat wave (30%) 477 Provide clean water and room cooling systems July 2016 Social (5%) 0.265 Schmallenberg virus epidemic 265 Fund laboratory studies and drugs proliferation July 2016 – May 2017 Conclusion This assessment of risks that affect Belgium has found that major risks are; high public debt, traffic congestion, heat wave, terrorism, marine pollution, industrial explosions and fires, Schmallenberg virus epidemic, nuclear phase out, train crash and gales and storms. These risks are negative events with likelihoods of occurrence and can impact human, economy, social relations or politics and the environment. High public debt and traffic congestion are the two risks, given the high risk score, require urgent attention to ensure stability of the Belgian nation. On fault finding using FTA, the paper found that environmental risks had more effect on national losses followed by economic risks. This meant that greater allocation of funds was targeted towards traffic congestion, servicing the huge public debt, and combating marine pollution. References Aneja, S., Cheng, K., Xiao, Y. & Yakadina, I. (2011). Belgium: Selected Issue Paper. International Monetary Fund. IMF Country Report No. 11/82. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/cr1182.pdf. Bond, P. (2004). Belgian gas explosion: questions remain unanswered. World Socialist Website. https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2004/09/belg-s03.html. Bruggenman, A. & Van Nieuwenhuyze, C. (2013). 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