Due: Next 100 years In this book, significant emphasis is laid on future of three nations: US, Poland andTurkey. Friedman predicts a severe economic crisis in the US, aggravated by massive retirement and world population sparsity. He also argues that US economy will appear financially stronger, an argument that is ‘half-baked’ as he does not specify factors and constraints behind all this happenings. The emergence of the superpowers: Turkey, Japan and Poland, according to him, will threaten American interests. I find these arguments shortsighted and based on limited facts perhaps for personal interests. I will take a restraint system in advising my senior executives, with the current globalization, speed and demand for high quality products, from picking up investments in Poland for the following reasons.
First, looking at the current economic powers, China is leading with future expansions being predictable. Second, the author seems to minimize the power of others notably G8 nations on future developments. Third, the author seems to ignore the fact that domestic conflicts in either of these countries might profoundly affect their performance. The collapse of Russian federation is based on probability, and there lacks substantial evidence to show that Russian federation will fail.
This implies that Poland, may not obtain a sizable market share for its products as the author claims. Research indicates that America is threatened by China more than the country the author has highlighted. The author asserts that due to attacks to the US military space, the retaliation by the US will lead to severe consequences and that, after 100 years, the US and Poland will emerge victorious. Why would Poland emerge victorious in battle when, it is fighting against the US?
Does the author seem to indicate that other developed countries will have cancelled effect? Why would Poland take over and not strongholds like Germany, France or Britain? Poland’s population is expected to diminish after the war implying a reduction in demand for products and less capacity. The author seems to base his arguments on opinions and lacks substantial evidence. My senior executives will be advised first, to take up a detailed industry review. First, politics and political ideologies is an actor under scrutiny. The reasons are that the political ideologies of a given country have a direct association on its security concerns.
This affect the business performance, growth and development as these trends depend heavily on the above two issues. Besides, a nations’ success depends on the investment it undertakes. It is probable that it will invest in a safe country with sound policies especially those that govern commerce performances. The current reality of superior technology, high demand for low cost high quality products, security and politics play a crucial duty to ensure goals are attained with the available, limited resources. Secondly, there is war and terrorism.
Warfare and terrorist attacks mitigate the financial performance, create a tough business environment. They also deter potential investors from investing thus leading to reduced margins, fewer jobs and crimes. The book, therefore, highlights some future anticipated actions based on limited data. It also lacks confidence as the world actions are exhibited a considerable degree of uncertainty. Reference: Friedman, G. (2009). The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st century. Garden city: Doubleday.