China, the US, India, the EU and Russia as Polar Powers in a Multipolar Global Power Structure - Coursework Example

GLOBAL POWER SHIFT SCENARIO By (Name) Name of Class (Course) Professor (Tutor) Name of Institution (University) City and State The Date B12: In 2050, are China, the US, India, the EU and Russia likely to be polar powers in a multipolar global power structure? Why and how? If not, why not? There has been a lot of developments and changes in the world over the past 50 years and these changes are expected to be more dramatic in the next 50 years. The growth generated by the developing countries like China, India and Russia could grow into larger forces in the global economy than they are now, possibly more than expected (PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2017). These countries are growing and developing at a very fast pace such that there is a possibility of surpassing the United States and the European Union. The developing countries are experiencing explosive growths in population while others are experiencing declines. These population fluctuations contribute to almost everything from scarcity of resources, changes in culture and societal norms to shifts in economic power (PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2015). The countries have different demographic paths translating to different growth patterns and paces. Some are rapidly aging and their labor forces are expected to be controlled as a share of the overall population. The young growing populations will create larger workforces and consumer markets. There is a gradual shift in global power as the United States no longer holds power since other regions are becoming more diplomatically and economically important. The question then is whether China, India, Russia, The United States and Russia are likely to become polar powers in a multipolar global power structure. The essay will look at each country’s possibility of becoming a polar power by 2050 then draw conclusions from the findings. For the most part of history, the western countries have been the most developed with China following closely (Varisco, 2013). China has gradually moved to a form of state capitalism from communism since the late 1970s and in the process it has achieved economic growth rates that would exceed ten percent some of the times. The country however is still has room to grow in the technological frontline and despite its macroeconomic imbalances that pose a threat to its pace of development, the country seems to be set to be as powerful as it was between the 14th and 17th centuries (Zheng et al., 2011). The expansion of the country’s economy is expected to increase its cultural and geopolitical influence. There is a decrease of capital controls to allow the Chinese currency and the assets it owns become the backbone of trade, finance and global reserves with the extent of sway that emanates with it. Massive strips of land are being developed in Africa by Chinese venture capitalists and there is also a discreet Chinese demographic and economic penetration of the Russian Far East (Peel, 2009). Moscow even qualms that Chinese corporations with support from Beijing will ultimately have control of the reality on the ground with Russians themselves having a declining population. It is believed that the Chinese century is just beginning. Commentators imagine that just as the United States overtook the British empire bin shaping the world order, China will do the same to the United States becoming the world’s super power with India following closely bringing the current super power to third place by 2050 (Kwasnicki, 2011). This is however would represent the natural order of things since China and India should be the biggest economies due to their large populations. These projections are however the theoretical current view and some scholars see the extent of influence that will come with the prosperity of the country and thee pace at which it will come as exaggerated (Cohen et al., 2014). Unbalanced and thin financial markets, economic discrepancies due to over-investment, corruption and inflation will slow down China’s growth to a super power. In the event that the country becomes the largest economy, its huge population would translate to much lower per capita income than the western countries. Even very small effects on the rates of differential growths can significantly alter the overall outcomes. If the appropriate interpretation of the shifting physical environment is taken, it would be noted that the world will be a multi-polar place with several leading centers shaping it by 2050, but not centered necessarily on China or East Asia. China is expected to be one of the biggest economies alongside the United States and other regions like Russia, India and the European Union if it can hold together and create a better fiscal regime. As much as China is radically developing, there are some constraints to its development and other countries are not just watching, they are also in the competition to become the world’s super powers or maintain the status. The United States emerged as the only super power after the dissolution and collapse of the USSR at the end of the Cold War. After the country’s catastrophe in Iraq and the world economic crisis that is prevalent, the United States’ unipolar moment seems to be reducing even more. Top analysts in The United States also admit that the world would be clearly multipolar in future with the question of whether this economic crisis would make the influence of the United States and other western countries even more (Cohen et al., 2014). The role of America is however somewhat uncertain since as much as its power is gradually decreasing in relation to the rest of the world, it still remains by far the strongest nation on the planet with a much higher gross domestic product (GDP) than its closest peers (PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2015). The country is however losing its ability to individually act in economic issues especially with its intense consumerism, its debt owned by foreign powers and the rise of highly competitive world suppliers making the economy of the United States extremely vulnerable. When it comes to America’s military, the country has more advantage when it comes to technology and has invested much more on military systems and weapons than the rest of the world put together ensuring its military dominance for decades to come (PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2015). With its ability to project power globally, most countries will keep relying on the state’s military power to guarantee the flow of energy and for security. The country’s domination will however be reduced since it has to take its foreign policy into account as a result of the effects of the weakened dollar reducing its ability to bring expansive economic agreements against other countries (Lundberg & Johanson, 2011). There will be a need of a major shift in the public mentality of The United States since their political leadership will have to steer the nation away from the raw domination of its recent past and towards a more distinct foreign policy that is able to steer through equality and compromise of power tradeoffs. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers (2015), four out of the five largest economies in the world are the western countries but in 2050, The United States is projected to be the only Western country to make it to top five of the list. It is projected to be number two after that of China which is expected to match that of America as early as 2027 then gradually overtake it. The World Bank has predicted that the United States dollar will lose the global dominance it has by 2025 to equal the euro and China’s Rimini in a multi-currency monetary system (Dunne, 2000). Despite these downfalls, the country is expected to remain a significant player in the global economy with much higher income levels than the emerging markets even with the slow growth rates enabling it to maintain its polar power in a multipolar future world. India is another country that is expected to rise into a polar power by 2050. The country is a global provider of pharmaceuticals and Information Technology services and by 2025 it is projected to become the most populous nation in the world (Mitra, 2014). The country will experience quite a rapid economic growth striving for a multipolar world where New Delhi will become one of the ‘poles’. However, just like China, the country is expected to suffer a relatively low Gross Domestic Product due to its large population. The country’s rise to power is also threatened by lack of resources in a demanding and consuming world requiring large quantities of natural resources (Cohen et al., 2013). The slow growth and economic stagnation of the United States and the Eurozone are however said to enhance the economic growth of countries like India and China enabling them to gain more expertise, wealth, the power of consumption and the influence to politically rearrange the world system to their advantage (Peel, 2009). India is placed in the ‘semi-periphery’ category by the world systems Theory (Cohen et al., 2013). This means that they have a major role to play in the mediation of political, economic and social activities that are related to the marginal and core areas. Aside from their booming economy, the country’s military power has rapidly increased with the fifth largest spending in the world of up to 40 billion US dollars annually (PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2017). India currently has a greater military influence since they now possess enormous amounts of nuclear weapons and have managed to maintain a very strong military force. More so, in a cultural perspective, the country has more businesses in other countries than any other which increases their cultural influence and power globally. The country’s movies are also being watched worldwide increasing India’s sphere of influence boosting its cultural influence and economic growth even more. India’s population is expected to rise to over 1.6 billion by 2050 slightly higher than China’s projections of close to 1.3 billion. As much as a large population would lead to a lower GDP, it is still advantageous as it aids in economic growth and the spread of cultural, socio-political and economic power. India’s economic breakthrough started almost a decade after that of China with also a slower growth rate (PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2017). The growth of India is because of its increase in military power and economic growth but still lacks all the other elements needed to rise to a super power. There are still a large portion of the country’s population that are in severe poverty where they are completely oblivious of globalization and the developed world. They also lack natural resources forcing them to depend on other countries. The country can therefore be said to be an emerging power rather than a superpower to lead on its own. It is expected to be part of the leading polar powers in a multipolar world alongside other countries like the United States and China. The European Union is a combination of European countries which came together in the post war period with the aim of bringing about peaceful relations to the European countries and put an end to the intra-European rivalry and hatred that was prevalent for centuries before (Dreyer et al., 2014). The Union has experienced significant transformations since its incorporation after the signing of the famous Treaties of Rome. It greatly evolved within half a century from six countries to the most developed union with a common security, economic and international policies. This rapid growth brings about controversy about its future, more so after the exit of Britain from the Union. Some experts have predicted its breakup due to various reasons especially refugee and migration crises. These are however not enough to make the Union fail within the next half a century or so since the divergent points are less than the common points. The European Union has a common cooperation with freedom of movement of people, goods, capital and services over borders. These have created a vast range of opportunities for both the people and the countries in the union to get economic benefits since access to foreign markets has been made easier (Simms, 2012). This makes the union highly in the interest of the member countries to continue supporting the already existing status quo within the European Union. The member countries are no longer united by war memories and the threat from the Soviet Union but are rather concerned for each of their own national interests. There will be no European power that will have the mass to become a super power by itself but there will be a possibility if they stick together in the Union (Peel, 2009). The Financial Times (2009), predicts that European governments will not the credibility nor the resources to play the role in global affairs they would normally have had. If the European Union member countries are analyzed on their own, they are more likely to fall far beyond the current large economies by 2050, far below China, India, Russia and the United States. However, if the European Union remains intact it is likely to be part of the polar powers in a multipolar power structure since they still remain large economies due to the existing inter-state agreements but they are projected to be below China and India which are expected to be high up in the polar power hierarchy. Russia on the other hand has re-emerged and is showing increasing power with its vast oil and gas reserves. The country’s growth projections are however hindered by a declining population. Its strong convergence rates on the other hand work to its advantage and it is perceived that by 2050 the country’s Gross Domestic Product per capita will be the highest of the five countries (Kuzyk & I︠A︡Kovet︠S︡, 2005). The decline in Russia’s population was caused by the war, the downfall of the USSR and the increase in mortality for men under fifty years as a result of alcoholism. Unfortunately, this decline is expected to continue over time. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers (2012), the position of Russia may not change and remain in its sixth place due to its resources but will still be Europe’s first economy above Germany which is expected to decline in the decades to come (Peel, 2009). According to the PricewaterhouseCoopers report, developing economies including Russia will dominate the world by 2050. The country’s rate of floating ruble, attractive rates on Finance Ministry bonds and recovering oil prices will ensure the development of the Russian Economy. The country is expected to have an account surplus meaning that it is not dependent on the inflow of capital from foreign countries. Russia is said to have the lowest capital outflow risk according to the PricewaterhouseCoopers analysis. The president of the country at the end of 2016 instructed the government to come up with a plan of action to make sure the economic growth of the country outstrips the world indicators in the next four years (Smith, 2011). This action plan would include measures to improve the state of the business in the country, the development of medium sized and small businesses, and the capacity of non-commodity exports and also include measures to improve the efficiency of industries run by the state. The country also has one of the strongest militaries in the world, it recently began the execution of its long-term military shipbuilding program. By 2050, the country’s navy is expected to have over 600 submarines, auxiliary ships and submarines (Miller & Trenin, 2004). These next generation warships will be able to combat submarines and will also have a modern sonar system and two special combat helicopters. The Russian Army is expected to maintain its main advantages in the long run; these include the psychological force of its personnel and the size of the army. The fact that Russia is investing in military equipment combined with its natural resources will ensure the country remains one of the dominant global powers. Despite its declining population, the country is expected to still remain one of the polar powers in the projected multipolar global power structure. Predicting the future is quite a complex task since there are a lot of factors that are left constant such as the possibility of wars with adverse effects to particular economies and also the possibility of serious natural events such as hurricanes, earthquakes or tsunamis that can deter or pull back the economic progress of countries. Different scholars and organizations have different views about the future of the world but most agree that the world will most likely have several polar powers with a multipolar global power structure. Most of the scholars agree that China, Russia, India, The United States and The European Union will most likely be polar powers by 2050. This is expected to occur peacefully but there are prospects of great power rivalry especially in East Asia which is characterized by weak institutions and alliances regionally. The economic rise of some of the countries could possibly lead to serious instabilities in the future most especially where China is expected to rise above the United States. China could be seen as a threat by its neighbours. The prospects of conflict are further enhanced by the fact that power balance needs to have common shared values and cultural understandings which are similar. These are however not evident in the Asian countries and thus there is the possibility of conflict erupting. One thing is however evident from the analysis, while the United States will remain a polar power, the other countries are likely to rise to either march or surpass its status leading to a multipolar global power structure. Reference List Cohen, C., Hicks, K. H., & Gabel, J., 2013. Global forecast 2014: U.S. security policy at a crossroads. [Online]. Available at: http://public.eblib.com/choice/publicfullrecord.aspx?p=1566851. [Accessed 6 Jun 2017]. Dreyer, I., Stang, G., Mandil, C., & Henderson, J., 2014. Energy moves and power shifts: EU foreign policy and global energy security. [Online]. Available at: http://www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/Report_18.pdf. [Accessed 7 Jun 2017] Dunne, M., 2000. US foreign relations in the twentieth century: from world power to global hegemony. International Affairs Journal, 17(16), 25-40. Kuzyk, B., & I︠A︡Kovet︠S︡, I. V., 2005. 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