The USA Global Power History - Case Study Example

GPAC ASSESSMENTS Name: Course: Instructor: Institution: Date of Submission: Question: In 2050, is the US likely to be a unipolar or bipolar superpower or a polar power in a multipolar global power structure? Why and how? If not, why not? Introduction Unipolar defines a state when one country has and exercises more power in relation to military influence, economic and cultural influence. Bipolar, on the other hand, defines when two major states or countries have majority of the military, cultural and economic power. On the other hand, the multipolar defines when more than two countries exercise the major power in terms of the economic, cultural and military capacity. The report will analyze whether by 2050, the USA will be a unipolar, bipolar or multipolar country. USA Global Power History Power capability is identified as the greater size a country has in terms of political stability, military influence, economic power, resource endowment, and territory size among other variables. These factors define the social, economic, military and political influence of a country on the global scale. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the USA became the only superpower country in terms of the highest population and geography. The country has always had the highest GDP, where it still remains the largest economy to date (Dunne, 2000). The economic condition of the country based on the capitalist free market, the high imports and exports among other large resources that led to the high standards of living in the country. Thus, the country has a high economic position, which gives it the major unipolar power in terms of economic conditions (Wohlforth, 1999). In terms of political stability, the country has a strong stability based on the capitalist federation. It also has always had strong foreign relations, which support the power of the company (Spruyt, 2008). On the other hand, in terms of military influence, the USA has always had the largest navy, higher than all the rest navies in the world. It also has the highest air force, and army among other military based in different parts of the world. The country also has the richest cultural tradition in the world in terms of fashion, art, cuisine, music and literature among many others (Schlesinger, 2005). The USA has always since the 1991s remained to be the sole unipolar country based on the power it has had in terms of economic power, cultural and technological influence, and the ideological and diplomatic capabilities of the world. Though the USA has remained as the sole superpower country, with advances in the world based on technological among others, it is a unipolar country, though many reject the conception. That is; many would prefer to perceive it as a uni-multipolar country (Lake, 1993). That stipulates that even through the country is a unipolar country, other multipolar countries are important and play major roles in influencing the role of the unipolar country. The USA global power is therefore, characterized as the primacy country with the highest power among other multipolar countries (Brooks & Wohlforth, 2002). Thus, there is a key potential for other superpowers in the country, due to the possibility of increasing growth in military strength and other economic potential mainly in China. The USA in 1783 to around 1853, has always been a regional hegemony country. That is; the American imperialism, was responsible for controlling the cultural, military and economic philosophies based on the power it possessed compared to other countries (Lake, 1993). Thus, it has always controlled the development of policies from other countries and their policies, which led to the increased foreign territory expansion (Dunne, 2000). The expansion was occurring continuously and highly leading to the development of the manifest destiny (Stephanson, 1996). That is; the expansion was considered a right of the empire. The USA, therefore, had an empire in the traditional sense, where other countries were subject to its control in terms of political policies and issues as well as the economies among others (Schlesinger, 2005). This power gave rise to the hegemony of the USA regionally (Dunne, 2000). That is; though it could not dictate what happened to other countries globally, all states in the USA were under it dictatorship (Lake, 1993). During the early 20th century, there were many multipolar countries. However, the World War 1 weakened them all except the USA, which was strengthened instead. The Monroe Doctrine was a policy developed to oppose the colonialism by the European in America as the Europeans attempted to control the independent country. The doctrine ensured that the countries remained independent and eliminated the possible war of power as the countries all had some form of power. Thus, the doctrine was to be applied in all states in the country, which confirmed that all states had to adhere to the doctrine, showing the presentation of the regional hegemony in the country (Murphy, 2005). The USA started as an isolationist country, during the early 1783s, as the isolation policy was adopted, demanding Europe to stay away from America, while controlling the western hemisphere. The Monroe doctrine was perceived in North and Latin American countries, presenting it as a colony, leading to the perceived development of the country as a dominant country (Perkins, 1995). In 1941, USA was thrust into World War II, where many events that led to the transformation of the country into a global superpower power country. More importantly, it was identified as the main country that could protect and guard other international orders. From then, the USA had the largest fighting force, giving it the military force that brands it as the superpower country. The military power of the country is one of the factors that makes it a unipolar country. 2050 Global Power of the USA Currently, China and the USA are both heading to a bipolar patter of global power. That is; China is currently on its path to developing a modernized, democratic, harmonious and civilized country. Thus, though the USA has always been a superpower country (unipolar), the rise of the China continent presents that it may have to share the power since both countries will have major comparative powers and relationships mainly in the national strength. According to (Dunne, 2000), the traditional introversion of the American culture is projected in other countries as has been observed in the past, and is expected to be perceived in the future. It will include the mixture of the supranational and national idealisms. Today, the USA lacks the characteristics that branded it with the imperialism power, which stipulates by the year 2050, it will not be a unipolar country (Spruyt, 2008). China been the only country with the capability to compete with China may stand in the same position as America. Though this is not guaranteed, it is possible that China may compete with the country on its world power dominance, despite the available of other multipolar countries (Brooks & Wohlforth, 2002). Though the word empire does not explain what the USA is today, it has most of the systems that makes it an international American order that hosts dependent allies, with its influence based on the global military commands in many continents (Bilgin, et al., 2010). More importantly, it also controls a higher percent of the economic product, which gives it a high economic influence compared to other countries. USA has accrued global power based on the wealth and national sovereignty that it has maintained. Since the 1941, when the USA become the superpower, it has projected its power and influence through other states (Murphy, 2005). Thus, unlike other empires before the USA, which were developed through structural negation of sovereignty and equality, the USA grew on global promotion due to the statehood of the state’s economic power and capitalist influence, including the military power (Bilgin, et al., 2010). Later, during the cold war, the unipolar power of the USA, also grew through invitation from local social forces, military and social/economic powers leading to the hegemonic power of the USA, which was different to imperials. That is; since it is based on the cooperation and consent of others, and not on domination and force solely (Bilgin, et al., 2010). Thus, given that it relies on the coordination of other autonomous states and social forces, despite the country having the unipolar power. Thus, the USA holds its global primacy power, formed by cooperation and consent of others where the capitalist powers have led to its own kind of empire, “a capitalist empire” (Bilgin, et al., 2010). Based on this information, the USA by 2050, could be a unipolar country. However, when compared to the rise perceived in China in terms of hard power rise. Unlike China, the USA has strategic relationships that may hinder China to compete with the country. That is; the USA has an alignment principle, where other multipolar countries such as Britain, Germany and Japan all cooperate. As described above, the cooperation and consent from other states and countries is one of the main ways that the USA maintains a global power giving it unipolar global power also influenced by multipolar power of other cooperating countries. China, on the other hand, follows a non-alignment policy despite the partnerships with other countries. The economic growth of China in the recent years has slowed down, which has reduced its comprehensive national strength. Thus, in terms of economic power, the Chinese government is threatened by the economic growth and power of the USA. On the other, the military power and influence of China is way superior to that of the USA. As China builds up its military force, it continues to threaten the USA. Thus, the national strength of both countries is attained through the military might, economic power and cultural influence of the countries. Both of this countries, have the national strength, where the lack of economic strength of China ensures that the USA will be a unipolar country. POST WWII 1945-1950 US UNIPOLARITY The World War II started in 1938. By the year 1945, Europe was a different country compared to the country that was with the end of the war. There was a major distrust among other the cooperating countries mainly among the USSR countries, which led to the elimination of other multipolar countries as the Soviet Union brought equality of weapons in the USA by 1949. Thus, as a superpower country, it had enough military influence, giving it the power to stand as a unipolar country. This era led to the development of major super weapons for the USA leading to the development of the military force of the country and one major source of its unipolar power. The USA has the largest economy dominance compared to other countries. However, China is currently crossing steadily on this gap. Fr instance, as of 2017, the GDP of USA is $18.04 trillion while that of China is next with a GDP of $11 trillion. Thus, the USA still remains as the economic super power country. As the GDP of China increases, that of the USA will also grow. Thus, though it is second after USA, there exists major challenges to reach the unipolar power of the USA to remove or share power in 2050 (MW, 2017). The USA GNP has constantly been increasing over the years. This stipulates that the GNP of the country by 2050 will be very high, which may support its unipolar power by the year 2050. The figure above supports that the GNP and GDP of the USA, are growing and rising largely, which supports the economic power of the country (TE, 2017). The world economy is anticipated to be double the size of what exists in the world today. However, reports also support that by 200, China may be a unipolar country or Bipolar in relation to USA. That is; the E7 countries are anticipated to grow faster compared to G7 countries in terms of economic stability, and influence. SYSTEM MAKER & PRIVILEGE TAKER According to (Mastanduno, 2009), the USA is a hegemony that takes risks ensuring its self-interest as a nation-state are met. Today, the USA does not possess equal power and security as it did years ago, where the economic success of the country has led to the economic growth of other countries. Therefore, in the past the USA has been a unipolar country, where it attained to get things done its way, but in the future, by 2050 that will not be possible. Thus, it presents that some of the multipolar countries such as China may compete hand in hand with USA or replace the USA and become a Unipolar country by 2050 (Mastanduno, 2009). After the cold war, the world did not return to been a multipolar country, but a USA unipolar country. The material strength of the USA in terms of geography, technological, economic and military power have always been the main sources of the unipolar power of the country (Ikenberry, et al., 2009). Pax Americana presents the peace among Russia and Europe and later in the entire world including the USA after the end of the World War II. Today, the Pax Americana presents the military power and economic influence of the USA compared to other nations (Charles, 1984). For instance, the Marshall Plan used billions of dollars to develop the Wester Europe Economy to launch the Pax Americana (Charles, 1984). The Marshall plan was used to develop on Western European Economies. The USA due to its national strength increased prosperity and peace. The Marshall plan exceeded through economic development of the European economies presented through the GDP increases (Simmons, 2007). The cooperation among this countries supported the growth and performance of the USA and its unipolar influence. PROSPECTS FOR C21st US GLOBAL POWER? Currently, the GDP PPP of USA is smaller compared to that China (Stiglitz, 2015). Thus, the unipolar power of the USA is challenged by the economic rise of the country. The unipolar of the USA developed as soon as the failure of the Soviet Union occurred. The cooperation of other multi-polar countries supporting the great power of the USA (Brooks & Wohlforth, 2002). In the coming years, USA has the main power to remain a unipolar country. However, China’s economic stability and growth is rising steadily. This, may threaten the unipolar strength of the USA, leading to a possible bipolar global power of the two countries in 2050. The USA Primacy is shifting towards the possible multipolar structure in the future. By 2050, some of the main great powers include China, India and the USA among others. The Asian countries will highly integrate in the economic share of the world, which stipulated that the USA primacy could be ended. The military primacy of the USA is massive, though the military power is currently limited. Therefore, the shift of unipolar power is going to occur in the coming years (Lundberg, 2013). GPAC NATIONAL POWER SCENARIO COMPARISONS Political Cohesion and Efficacy The ASEAN countries political cohesion and efficacy is high, as well as that of the USA. The ASEAN countries efficacy and cohesion revolves around the primacy perceived through the countries working on joint policies, where the centrality of internal and external cohesion is perceived. On the other, the unipolar of the USA determine the cohesion and efficacy perceived in the country. Economic Power Currently, the economy of China performs better compared to that of the USA (Stiglitz, 2015). The population of China is bigger than that of the USA, as well as the GDP, which is growing three times as that of the USA in the last few years. In terms of exports, China has the most exports and lesser imports. Though China is lagging behind on factors such as direct foreign investment (Willige, 2016). However, with time, such gaps will be closed, which stipulates that in 2050, there is a high possibility of the global power been a unipolar or bipolar power. (Willige, 2016) Military Power The military power of China and that of the USA is almost similar, but China has a higher military power. That is; based on the information in (Writer, 2016) China is ranked 3 while the USA is ranked 1 regardng the GFP rank. However, China has a higher military manpower, including those fit for service. The actie ilitary personel and reservs of China are higher compared to that of the USA. However, on the other hand, the USA has more militay arcrafts, helicopters and attack helicopters among other types of aircrafts compared to those of China. On thee other hand, China has a higher tank strength, toweed artillery, fleet strength and merchant military strength among others. Thus, the military power of both the USA and China is almost similar, though that of China is growing seadily compared to that of the USA. Soft Power & Diplomacy Soft power refers to the economic strength, cultural and diplomacy of a country. The report above presents that the economic strength of China is growing rapidl and may outdo that of the USA. However, the economic strength of USA is still high. Thus, to date the US is considered a super power country in regards to hard and soft power, including the attractive culture to many countries. However, the increasing soft power of China threatens that of USA in a few years to come. China has a coherent soft power strategy, which stipulates that it may have great power in a few years to come. That by, 2050, there is a high chance it will share its power with the USA, leading to bipolar power in the society rather than the unipolar power of the USA. CONCLUSIONS The USA global power is high, it is a unipolar country among many multi-polar countries. The economic, military and political cohesion among others are some of the major factors that define the unipolar power of the country. The cooperation of other countries with the USA, as well as the support it offers are some of the main factors that determine and influence the power of USA. However, the unipolar global strength of the USA can only be exercised regionally, as it has been since it became a superpower country after the Soviet failed. Today, the global power of the USA is challenged by the rising economic and military power of China among other countries.The military power of the USA is almost similar to that of China. However, China is responsible for the development of its military resources unlike USA, which stipulates it may have sufficient power to overthrow or stand hand in hand with USA in power leading to a bipolar country in 2050. 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