Essays on Decision-Making and Successful Organization Coursework

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The paper 'Decision-Making and Successful Organization" is a good example of business coursework.   Decision making is becoming an increasingly important topic in research and many articles in regard to issues underlying it have been published. Although this literature has been useful in providing a deep insight into issues pertaining to decision making, no substantial research has examined techniques that can be used to avert incidences of wrong decision making in working environments with high levels of risk and uncertainty (Macmillan, 2000). Scholars and theorists across the board have proposed various decision-making analysis techniques which are aimed at providing the user with a logical argument as to how the decision can affect the organization. Each of the decision criteria is justified by a set of axioms that attempt to explain the decision behavior of the decision-maker.

Exemplifying this is the seminal works of Morgentern and Von Neumann (1974) and Savage (1954). They provide classical examples of the quantitative criterion of decision making where the decision-maker justifies a comparison of alternatives based on a set of assumptions. For instance, the axiom system proposes that the subjective value attached to each consequence as well as the possibility of an event can be quantified.

However, in reality, the elicitation of information required to make quantitative decisions cannot be adequately assessed in many cases. This is why the qualitative model has been proposed as it provides a better platform for the representation of uncertainties and preferences. This article provides a personal reflection of a decision that I made during my employment and apparently produced unsatisfactory outcomes. The issue will be identified in the light of theories, models and frameworks underlying qualitative decision making and it will further try to examine how these could have been used to deal with future problems. Background of the problem While working as the marketing manager in a local company I was mandated to carry out market surveys or market research before the company ventured into a new market.

I was consistent with this task until the unfortunate event when I failed to conduct a comprehensive study on an external market that the company intended to explore. This did not only cost my job but also cost the company millions of dollars in loses.

Market research serves three basic functions: predictive, diagnostic and descriptive (Duboff & Spaeth, 2000). Under the predictive function, the company takes advantages of changes that are constantly occurring in the marketplace. For instance, Kraft Foods realized increasing demand for green/organic food and low-fat foods and concurrently liaced with other food companies that were renowned in the production of healthier foods such as The South Beach Diet. Through the diagnostic function of the market research, the company is able to identify ways it can alter its products or services in order to increase sales.

Descriptive function, on the other hand, presents statements of facts regarding the market. For example, information about the history of sales, belief of consumers towards the products, consumer attitudes as well as competitor analysis can be gathered. These guide the marketer to develop innovative mechanisms and channels of distribution that will place it on a competitive edge.

References

Duboff, R., & Spaeth, J. (2000). Market research matters: Tools and techniques for aligning your business. New York: John Wiley and sons.

Fitzgerald, M., Ayson, S., & (eds). (2012). Managing under uncertainty: a qualitative approach to decision making. Sydney: Pearson.

Gilboa, I., & Schmeidler, D. (2000). Case-based knowledge and induction. IEEE Transcationa on system, man nad cybernetics-Part A: systems and humans, 30(2) , 85-95.

Gonzalez, C., Lerch, J., & Lebiere, C. (2003). Instance-based learning in dynamic decision making . cognitive science, 27 , 591-635.

Hansson, S. (2005). The decision theory: A brief introduction. Stockholm: Royal Institute of Technology (KTH).

Macmillan, F. (2000). Risk, Uncertainty and Investment DecisionMaking in the Upstream Oil and Gas Industry. A thesis presented for the degree of Ph.D.

Merril, E., Sun, R., & Petterson, T. (2001). From implicit skills to explicit knowledge: A bottom-up model of skill learning. congnitive science, 25 , 203-244.

Paul, G., & Wright, G. (2004). Decision analysis of management decision . Chinchester: Wiley.

Suhonen, N. (2007). Normative and descriptive theories of decision making under risk: A short review. North Karelian: University of Joensuu.

Wixted, J. (2007). Dual-process theory and signal-detection theory of recognition memory. psychology review, 114(1) , 152-176.

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