# Essays on Qualitative Methods for Risk Analysis Assignment

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The paper "Qualitative Methods for Risk Analysis" is an outstanding example of a management assignment. It is not a must that the mean number be quoted as a whole number since the mean may also be used for the calculation of fractions on the same. Therefore one can round off to leave the evaluation as a whole number or it may be left as a fraction. (d)Yesterday, John Smith’ s wife Mary also bought a case of 12 bottles of 2007CasaMiaRojo Blanco. From these two purchases, what is the probability that the Smith household will have cork-spoilage? P (an event) = (no.

of outcomes in the event)/ (total no. of possible outcomes) =4% of 24 =0.96 (e)Critically discuss TWO of the assumptions which underlie your calculations in Question1. There are two main assumptions that are considered when calculating the sums above. The first assumption is exclusivity and the other is the independence of the events or variables. It is important to consider whether the events are mutually exclusive or not. This means that events A and B cannot happen both at the same time. It is either the corks are spoiled or they are in perfect condition.

The second important assumption to be considered is to determine whether the events are independent of each other. The independence of the events is determined by the likelihood that one event will be influenced to happen by the other. QUESTION 2[6 marks] In a manufacturing process, it is estimated that 40 percent of industrial accidents have operator error attributed as a cause, 45 percent have machine failure attributed as a cause and 10 percent have both. (a)Calculate the probability that an accident is attributable to some other cause. Show your reasoning. The total percentages of accidents are 100%.

Of those 40% of the total accidents are as a result of operator error, 45% are as a result of machine failure and 10% are as a result of both. For this reason, the remaining 5% are the problems attributable to other causes. P (an event) = (no. of outcomes in the event)/ (total no. of possible outcomes) =5/100 =0.05.

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