Are the Events of 9-11 and beyond Preage an Era of New Terrorism - Essay Example

Discuss whether the events of 9/11 and beyond preage an era of "new terrorism"? What problems does this pose in terms of Risk Management? Terrorism has occurred throughout the history of the world, but today the world is experiencing a new age of terrorism which is threatening the peace and security of the entire world. No nation, small or big, economically strong or weak has been able to escape from this growing menace. ‘New Terrorism’ has manifold implications on our day to day lives, much beyond the impact on the immediate victims of the attacks. Risk Management in the face of ‘New Terrorism’ has acquired a completely new dimension. It is at best still in its infancy stages and there is a need to have a re- look at the traditional methods of risk management. The word terrorism is derived from the Latin word “Terrere” meaning to frighten. Terrorism is defined as the use of violence and threats to intimidate or coerce especially for political purposes. Terrorism. [Online] Available from http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/terrorism [Accessed: 02nd March, 2010]. Although the origin of the word is as old as 1325 AD, the word “terrorism” is still indescribable and one of the most complex words to define. It could be best defined as the systematic use of terror, especially as a means of coercion. Although it may seem that the word has gained new dimensions in today’s world, a look at the history of the world shows us that history of terrorism is as old as the history of man itself. It could be described in various forms, that is, as a strategy or as a tactic. The word “terrorism” is so hard to define, not because of the complexity of the word, but because of the complexity of human thinking ( Hoffman, 2006) . The same act committed might seem as a crime to certain people while others may justify it as holy duty. While some may find terrorism as a justified reaction to oppression and an inexcusable abomination, others may call it as an act against an elected government and the constitution. What may be terrorism for one man could be the freedom struggle for the other. A lot depends upon the party whose views are being reflected. An example of this could be derived from the following quotations about 9/11. ‘We can't accommodate terrorism. When someone uses the slaughter of innocent people to advance a so-called political cause, at that point the political cause becomes immoral and unjust and they should be eliminated from any serious discussion, any serious debate.’ -RUDOLPH GIULIANI, CNN interview, Sep. 11, 2002 ‘If inciting people to do that [9/11] is terrorism, and if killing those who kill our sons is terrorism, then let history be witness that we are terrorists.’ -OSAMA BIN LADEN, interview, Oct. 2001 It is the same incident that is viewed by different people in completely opposite manners. As a matter of fact there is no internationally agreed definition of terrorism. Studies have shown that there are more than a 100 definitions of terrorism world wide (Jeffery , 2003). The closest definition of terrorism is that they are violent acts which are conducted with the main and sole aim of creating terror, by an individual or a group of individuals with the targets that include both non-combatants and civilians. In the year 2004, a United Nations Secretary General report formally defined terrorism as “any act intended to cause death or serious bodily harm to civilians or non- combatants with the purpose of intimidating a population or compelling a government or an international organization to do or abstain from doing any act”. But the hurdles in defining terrorism owe it to the fact that the word is tremendously charged both politically and emotionally. The reason behind terrorism is because it is the fight that favours the smaller group in an asymmetric conflict. The cost of terrorism versus the affect that has is greatly in favor of terrorism. The cost of carrying out a terrorist attack is a fraction of the cost of a full fledged armed military. Terrorism is perceived as the easiest means to achieve extreme aims and goals of nations and individual groups primarily due to this factor. Terrorism in the current day scenario shouldn’t be considered as monolithic in nature under any circumstances. It is evident that terrorism is a generalized concept which is derived from our own ideas and thoughts on values which have been ingrained in us regarding the rules of war, law, morality, etc. The reality of terrorists is that they are shaped by culture, ideology and politics- specific, inchoate factors and notions that motivate diverse actions. In current day scenario it safe to say that in the new age of terrorism the terrorists have evolved a great deal from the yesteryears and have now started to innovate; make full use of the technological advances, enrich from each others experience, repeat tactics which have been able to achieve success in the past. They have also started to formalize their training by production of manuals, debate the pros and cons of the tactics, targets and limits on violence. They also have doctrines and theories in order to justify and legitimize their own acts of terrorism. The most significant and striking development of the new age terrorism post 9/11, is the fact that it has become far more deadly than in the past. In the 1970s, even the deadliest terrorist attack would cause casualties in tens. In 1980s the terrorist attacks would leave hundreds of people dead, and in the nineties the frequency of such terrorist attacks increased manifold. On 9/11 there were thousands of casualties and was by far the deadliest terrorist attack ever witnessed. The magnitude and the effect of the terrorist attack had reached never before proportions. It could be predicted that in future such like terrorist attacks would be more frequent with the casualties total reaching tens of thousands. It was in the yesteryears that the terrorists’ main motive was for a lot of people to watch and not for a lot of people to die. While in the 9/11 scenario the equation changed to larger body counts. The self constraint showed earlier gave way to large-scale indiscriminate violence and more brutal conflicts. It was the need to attain media attention by attacks on a much larger scale. The need of the hour as felt by the terrorists was to have a larger audience watching a larger number of people dead. During the sixties and the seventies it was strongly feared that the terrorism would take the help of nuclear weapons owing to the available black market. This fear was heightened after the fall of Soviet Union, however, although the nuclear terrorism is still a cause of concern it has not happened as yet. But 9/11 has redefined the plausibility of the situations never imagined earlier. Another important aspect that comes to light is the fact that in new age terrorism, terrorists have found new and unique ways to finance their operations. The end of cold war had led to the dwindling of the economic resources for the terrorists. This brought about the change in terrorist tactics to obtain money from various other means such as kidnapping for ransom, diverting money meant for humanitarian causes, asking for contributions from religious organizations and extortion. The money was being transferred from one location to another using the informal banking system that exists in a large number of countries. The new age terrorism started to draw funds from sources which were lethal in nature. Also, the dependence of the terrorists on state sponsors has reduced to a great deal and as mentioned earlier the end of cold war brought about less monitoring of states which were historical sponsors of terrorists. This is very evident from the fact that all the intelligence sources had failed to appreciate, anticipate and locate the earlier preparations that were done for 9/11. Although, a few of the organizations knew about the attack in bits and pieces, the entire picture was missing. The terrorist organizations are based basically on the principal of survival. It has to make every effort to maintain a secret membership and complete operational security. These organizations also have to guard against infiltration and punish treachery with utmost brutality. The new age terrorism seems to be built itself on lines of a lean international business organization. They have formed large organizations with separate individuals responsible for the recruitment, training, planning, financing, logistics, propaganda, social service, reconnaissance, etc. Most of the terrorists’ organizations have replicated Al – Qaida like model and have become more organized in their structure and hierarchy. The earlier barriers of national frontiers have been transcended by the new age terrorist organizations. As a matter of fact, new age terrorism now stresses on carrying out attacks on foreign land to gain international media attention. It also solves the purpose of isolating their foes from hosts. The Palestinians, inspired by the Algerian FLN’s (Front de Liberation Nationale) terrorist campaign in mainland France, were the first to systematically adopt this approach, but others soon followed. Al – Qaida has redefined the term of global terrorism as it is drawing recruits and funding from all over the world, maintaining connections in over 60 countries and carrying out operations in over 20 countries. It is this face of new age terrorism that we are expected to encounter in the coming years. The new terrorism has also managed to gain important and significant strategic results. The 9/11 attack, which not only saw over 3,000 people dead and hundreds of billions of economic setback, has managed to influence the American economy in long term perspective . It has also caused had very telling effect on U. S. policies. The new terrorism seems to have its main aim as making the enemy’s life unbearable by bleeding it through a thousand cuts. It seeks to destroy the potential investment in that country, destroying the tourism industry and bleed the economy to a slow and steady death. New terrorism may seem to have the kind of affect that is intended by the terrorists. It can create scintillating news and throw a complete new light on the old topic of terrorism. But as a matter of fact the terrorist groups that exist today are just a fraction more than the number of factions existing during the 1970s and 1980s. The total number of incidents related to terrorism and terrorist deaths have also not skyrocketed during this period. Analysts may suggest that the frequency of the number of attacks like 9/11 may continue unabated in large numbers. However, it could be best described as vulnerability based analysis rather than threat based analysis. Vulnerability based analysis concentrates on weakness and hypothesizes a terrorist and a worst case scenario. Often, such a scenario is anticipated, expected and felt imminent. However, this would help the terrorist organizations to only further their aims as it would create an atmosphere of panic. The terrorism transcending borders is not altogether a new theory. Since time immemorial terrorists have often seen their so called “struggles” global. The borders had dissipated in the late sixties, where terrorists had always aimed to reach a wider base of audience. The new attacks have just been highlighted and brought to notice due to the technological advances that have been done in the field of communications. Risk management can be understood only after analyzing the word risk. “Risk” has been defined as per ISO 31000 as the effect of uncertainty on objectives (whether positive or negative). Risk management defined by is considered as the identification, assessment, and prioritization of risks followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities. Risk Management. [Online] Available from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_management#cite_note-iso3100-3 [Accessed: 02nd March, 2010]. Risks can come from uncertainty in financial markets, project failures, legal liabilities, credit risk, accidents, natural causes and disasters as well as deliberate attacks from an adversary. The main strategy to manage risk envisage transferring of risk to another party, circumventing the risk, moving away from the negative effect and accepting some or all of the consequences of a particular risk. In an ideal scenario of risk management a process of prioritization is carried out in order to identify the risks which have the greatest amount of loss and the highest probability of occurring are handled first. Those risks which are could cause a lesser loss and have a lesser probability of occurring are handled later, and similarly in descending order. However, the balancing act between risks with a higher loss and lower occurrence possibility and lower loss and higher occurring probability are more often than not mishandled. The basic idea of risk management should be able to cover the following:- 1. Create a certain amount of value. 2. Be an integral part of the organizational process and decision making. 3. Should be able to address the factors of uncertainty. 4. It should be well structured. 5. Should be accessible and transparent. 6. Should be able to respond to change and dynamic in nature. 7. Should be continuously worked upon and always improving. ( Committee Draft of ISO 31000 Risk Management) [ Online]. Available at http://www.nsai.ie/uploads/file/N047_Committee_Draft_of_ISO_31000.pdf [Accessed: 02nd March, 2010]. The beginning of any risk management starts with analysis of the problem and the source of the problems. It is pertinent to note that both sources and problems need to be analyzed and diagnosed in a detailed manner in order to be able to evaluate the strategy for handling the problem well. While the source analysis deals with the risk sources which could be both internal as well as external to the target of risk management. Problem analysis mainly deals with risks which are related to identified threats. Examples of problem analysis could be towards the risks of being looted or accidents or casualties, etc. Terrorism risk management is what could be called as still infancy stages. The progress of risk management in other fields such as natural catastrophes, financial markets, etc have developed over a period of time and this is certainly not the case in terrorism risk management. However, the need for terrorism risk management could be well understood by reading the quote below. ‘With the increased threat of terrorism, public, private, and governmental agencies face an increased need to understand and manage the risk to their employees and organizational assets.’ - Nathan C. Gould, D.Sc., P.E., S.E. ABS Consulting Over the past decade, more so after 9/11, new terrorism has forced the public, private and governmental organizations not only to develop an understanding of terrorism risks but also to deal with it in a proactive manner. There have been a number of efforts to not only understand terrorism risks but also to assess and/or manage risks. It is now irrelevant as to where the target is located or how remote is the area. It must be understood that these places with lesser security and lesser prominence have a much more chance of being attacked since they seem to offer a “softer” target to the terrorists. These targets seem more lucrative since the attack would be brought to the notice of the millions of people by media despite the remoteness of the location, thus fulfilling the aim of the terrorists. 9/11 has brought out the important lesson that in addition to the terrible loss of life, terrorist attacks could also cause major financial losses. It is evident that as with other natural and man- made hazards, the financial coverage may simply not be sufficient to cover the loss of any organization that may occur due to terrorism. The cost of covering the financial losses to any organization which is under the threat of terrorism is humongous. Managing risk that is associated with terrorism is a very overwhelming and difficult task for companies. The problem areas include the very basics, such as where to begin with in terrorism risk management, what are the assets that need to be protected, and what are the effective mitigation solutions. It is required that terrorism risk management should be as well structured and systematic as managing risks from other hazards. The outline framework should include both identifying and dealing with potential terrorism threats. Typically a three phase step by step, systematic procedure should be adopted to deal with terrorism risk management. The first step of phase should consist purely of threat identification and initial site assessment. It should include understanding the type, source and probability associated with different threats. This would form the most important part of the phase. The key elements of threat identification phase include the following:- 1. Threat Recognition and Identification 2. Threat Potential 3. Site Security Assessment It could be possible that certain number of organizations have some background information of the different kinds of threats facing their installations, employees and facilities, it is very likely that a large number of organizations don’t have any knowledge of the vulnerability till a detailed threat assessment is carried out of the location. The detailed threat assessment would actually take a critical look at the installation security and the results could surprise many. The detailed site analysis of a site that is already considered to be secure by many would again fail to live up to the standards of the scrutiny considering the fact that new terrorism threats could be received from a greater distance without actually having to launch a physical attack. The next step of the terrorism risk management would utilize all the information gathered in the step one or phase one of the terrorism risk management and scrutinize it for focusing the organizational resources to evaluate the impact of a terrorist attack on the facility. The steps that could form a part of the analysis in the phase two should ideally include the following:- 1. Blast and explosion analysis. 2. Progressive Collapse (structural stability) analysis. 3. Chemical, Biological, and Radiological Threat analysis. The blast and explosion analysis as well as the progressive and chemical, biological and radiological threat analyses could provide the threat assessment to the employees, installations and the infrastructure. There are a number of softwares available in the market that could help in this process. They would create a structure similar to the installation which the analysis has to be carried out on and a digital form of the explosion could be done to assess the threat to the installation. All forms of terrorist attacks could be carried out in order to analyze the various levels and forms of threats. The final step after identifying and analyzing the threats due to terrorism would be to put a proper risk management plan in place. The risk management plan should draw inspiration and structure itself on the lines of the risk management plans made in any other scenario (such as earthquakes, tornadoes, etc). Very often risk management plans that are in place for any other scenario could be superimposed on the terrorism risk management plans. The basic requirements which should be met under all circumstances when a comprehensive terrorism risk management plan is being put in place should include the following:- 1. Protection of the Facility and Its Occupants. 2. Emergency Planning and Disaster Recovery. 3. Reduction of Financial Risk. Protection of the employees of the occupants of the buildings by the means of physical or electronic surveillance and detection devices, increasing employee awareness and application of window film to reduce glazing hazards should be very first and basic steps to take in terrorism risk management. The reduction of financial risk in terrorism risk management is one of the most complex and demanding issue. Also, the financial implications for insurance against terrorism have increased to proportions that are unaffordable to say the least. The financial exposure may need to be addressed through a combination of risk mitigation measures, alternate or back-up facilities and insurance. The risk management plan should be capable of determining the changes in risk due to threat information or changes to security operations and building protection. The regimented procedure will maintain a focus on effectiveness and prevent fragmented decision making for risk reduction. It is important that in face of the terrorism threat that is being faced in today’s world there is an urgent need to understand and manage risk. Risk involving the employees and risk to the installations, infrastructure, facilities and most importantly finances. The involvement should be from all sectors, be it public, private or government. The above methods described should be used in order to help effectively reduce the risk from a terrorist attack. Read More