Investment Analysis of Solar Energy - Case Study Example

Running Header: SUSTAINABLE INVESTMENT: ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ENERGY Sustainable Investment: Investment analysis of Solar Energy Name Institution Sustainable Investment: Investment analysis of Solar Energy Introduction The growing economic hardships caused by harsh global economic trends have made investment such a nightmare for many upcoming entrepreneurs. Areas of investments that have been in existence for such a long time and ones that define who-is-who in the investment world are also the ones that cause greatest harm to the environment in one way or another. These investments including industrial investment, transportation investment, motor industry investment just to name but a few have been main economic hubs that have transformed personalities and corporations into multi-millionaires in their multi-national corporation or individual enterprises (Agrafiotis, Roeb, Konstandopoulos, Nalbandian, Zaspalis, Sattler, Stobbe & Steele, 2005). These investments have however come under strict criticism of the damage they cause to the environment throwing strategists into imploring other forms of investments that are mindful of the environment and its concerns. It is pursuant to this sensitization that sustainable investments have continued to receive appreciation and attention among upcoming entrepreneurs inclined to indulging in investment opportunities to edge a living in these highly competitive and economically challenging times. The sustainable investment that is going to be analyzed in this paper is World Solar Energy. This investment involves harnessing of solar energy to provide power that can be used in industrial development and investment among other areas that require electric energy (and other forms of energy) for their daily operation (Agrafiotis, Roeb, Konstandopoulos, Nalbandian, Zaspalis, Sattler, Stobbe & Steele, 2005). This investment is referred to as ‘sustainable’ since solar energy is renewable and therefore does not get depleted. In a word, it sustains itself. It is also its eco-friendly nature that makes this investment viable as regards environmental conservation (Anderson & Palkovic, 1994). The Environmental Social and Governmental (ESG) issues that are relevant to this investment proposal are as wide ranging as they are imperative for the study. For this sustainable investment proposal, 10 sectors that may be considered to have the most significant financial impact are given below. These sectors represent over fifty percent of the total market capitalization of the FTSE all world Development Index (Bénard, Gobin & Gutierrez, 1981). These sectors are: Gas, water & multi-utilities Oil & Gas Producers Automobiles & Parts Electricity Chemicals Forestry & Paper Food Producers Construction & Materials Mining Travel & Leisure Survey of Previous Research and Literature There have been previous studies that have been done to this area of sustainable investment which give incredible insights to some areas of interest for this paper. According to Bolton James (1977) solar energy is among the many other forms of power (such as wave power, wind, hydroelectric power, and biomass) and accounts for most of the renewable forms of energy that we have on earth. He further indicates that only a fraction of the available solar energy is currently being harnessed for generation of power to be used in industries among other areas of application (Bolton, 1977). Investment in World Solar Energy involves technological advancement which harnesses the power as required. This relies on photovoltaic cells and heat engines whose application in the industrial and other areas is only limited by human creativity and ingenuity. These areas include but are not limited to solar applications in areas of space cooling and heating where the solar energy is harnessed commonly by solar panels (Bradford, 2006). The uses of solar energy which gives credible insights as a front of entrepreneurial investment are broadly categorized into two categories as regards solar technology as being either active or passive solar. This is dependent on the way the energy is harnessed, converted and distributed (Butti & Perlin, 1981). Active solar techniques here are those techniques that use solar thermal collectors and photovoltaic cell panels to harness energy whereas passive solar techniques consist of practices such as using materials that have favouable thermal mass, orienting structures and buildings towards the sun, and having design spaces that circulate air naturally (Carr, 1976). It is important to give a detailed study of the availability of solar energy and the ease with which it can be harnessed so as to make investment in such a venture economically viable. In this regard, it can be obtained from literature that the earth receives well over 174 petawatts (PW) of solar radiation that is incoming into the upper atmosphere (insolation). Taking into consideration the amount of this energy that is lost in the atmosphere before it reaches the earth surface, a whooping 3,850,000 exajoules (EJ) of energy is absorbed by oceans, atmosphere and land masses (Farrington, 1964). To put in a different way, this amount of energy produced for one hour is equivalent to the total energy that was used by the entire world in the whole of 2002 (Karan, Greer, Kasperbauer & Mahl, 2001). The figure below shows the amount of solar energy that is absorbed by the earth. Fig. 1. Amount of Incoming Solar Radiation Reaching the Earth’s Surface It is proven that all other forms of renewable energy with the exception of tidal and geothermal energy derive all their sources of energy from the sun. It is in this view that there has been a continued change in the architectural planning of urban places where buildings and structures are being designed in a way that is advantageous in harnessing solar energy. Common features of what is referred to as passive solar features for urban architectural planning include such things as orienting structures in relation to the sun, selective shading (overhangs), compact proportion (which is a low surface area (SA) to volume (V) ratio). An example of such a solar design is the Socrates’ Megaron House (Leon & Kumar, 2007). There are recent technological advancements that have utilized computer programs to ease the harnessing and harmonization of this energy. This computer modeling system ties together solar heating, lighting and ventilation systems in a solar design that is integrated into one program (Lieth & Whittaker, 1975). Areas of application of solar energy are also as wide as there are areas of investment. In addition to the urban architectural planning discussed above, solar energy also finds application in agriculture where it is used in horticulture which seeks to have all the solar energy at its disposal optimized so as the productivity of the plants planted in the Greenhouses is maximized. These Greenhouses convert solar energy to artificial heat which makes it possible to produce special crops that may not be suited for some localities throughout the year (Mills, 2004). Another area of application of solar lighting is Daylighting Systems which are used to collect sunlight and distributing it to be used for interior illumination. This technology has been a great way of offsetting energy use where it has replaced artificial lighting and indirectly offsets the need of air conditioning (Lieth & Whittaker, 1975). Hybrid Solar Lighting (HSL) is another technology that provides interior illumination where the system collects sunlight by the use of focusing mirrors which track the sun and harness its light. The system uses optical fibers to transmit the sun’s light into houses as a supplement for conventional lighting (Mills, 2004). The table below shows other forms of renewable energy and their consumption. Table 1. Yearly Solar fluxes & Human Energy Consumption Yearly Solar fluxes & Human Energy Consumption Solar 3,850,000 EJ Wind 2,250 EJ Biomass 3,000 EJ Primary energy use (2005) 487 EJ Electricity (2005) 56.7 EJ From the preceding evidence and insights of the extent to which the world is changing towards the use of solar energy, it shows that investment in World Solar Energy is a viable investment that is economically sustainable as it has ready market and field of application within the economic world (Müller & Steinfeld, 2007). These are the insights that have given the impetus of the authenticity of this investment viably credible (Perlin, 1999). Proposed Research Question The research question for this paper is: Is solar energy a sustainable investment? In this paper, there is going to a discussion of how solar energy is harnessed and various ways that it can be applicable in fields of investment. In discussing this, the paper also will outline areas of interest where solar energy is used in the current society. This includes design and technological advancements in such areas as structural development and architectural designs (if any) that are biased towards harnessing of solar energy. The reason of establishing that solar energy is a sustainable investment is because of the benefits that come with harnessing this energy in the view of replacing the environmentally lethal forms of energy from such forms like fuel, oil and gas (Müller & Steinfeld, 2007). Data Collection The data that will be used for this paper will be obtained from World Solar Energy Index, NASDAQ Index, MSCI World Index and US Euro Inflation. The data collected will be within the period of five years from 2004 to 2009. This data is also collected from a monthly basis approach and this is so as to ensure that the longevity of the data collected is not too long to question its credibility. The largest solar generating facility in the whole world is the famous Solar Energy Generating Systems (SEGS) in the US. It consists of solar power plants in Mojave Desert. The plant has several sections such as SEGS III–VII (150 MW) which is located at Kramer Junction, SEGS I–II (44 MW) located at Daggett and SEGS VIII–IX (160 MW) located at Harper Lake (Bartlett, 1998). This company gives evidence that points towards the fact that investment in solar energy is a viable venture economically. This success over time gives incredible insights in the viability of investment in solar energy. This is indicated in the in the table below (Scheer, 2002): Table 2. SEGS Plant History and Operational Data Plant Year Built Location Net turbine capacity Field area Oil temperature Gross solar production of electricity (MWh) (MW) (m²) (°C) 1996 Average 1998–2002 SEGS I 1984 Daggett 14 82,960 307 19,900 16,500 SEGS II 1985 Daggett 30 165,376 316 36,000 32,500 SEGS III 1986 Kramer Jct. 30 230,300 349 64,170 68,555 SEGS IV 1986 Kramer Jct. 30 230,300 349 61,970 68,278 SEGS V 1987 Kramer Jct. 30 233,120 349 71,439 72,879 SEGS VI 1988 Kramer Jct. 30 188,000 391 71,409 67,758 SEGS VII 1988 Kramer Jct. 30 194,280 391 70,138 65,048 SEGS VIII 1989 Harper Lake 80 464,340 391 139,174 137,990 SEGS IX 1990 Harper Lake 80 483,960 141,916 125,036 Sources: Solargenix Energy Research Methods The research methods used for this paper are summarized in the table below to enable ease of comparison of the reasons as to why these methods were opted for in different cases as opposed to others (Schittich, 2003). Method Overall Purpose Advantages Challenges Questionnaires and checklists Was used in instances when there was need to quickly and/or easily get lots of information from people in a non threatening way Was inexpensive to administer. Was easy to compare and analyze. Was able to be administered to many people. There are many sample questionnaires already in existence The challenges that were encountered with this methods were: wording at times biased client's responses the methods are impersonal they required sampling expert methods didn’t get full story Interviews (Return) Was used to fully understand someone's impressions or experiences, or to learn more about their answers to questionnaires Get full range and depth of information Develops relationship with client Can be flexible with client Can take much time Can be hard to analyze and compare Can be costly Interviewer can bias client's responses Documentation Review (Risk) Was used to get the impression of how programs operates without interrupting the program; is from review of applications, finances, memos, minutes, etc. Get comprehensive and historical information Doesn't interrupt program or client's routine in program Information already exists Few biases about information Often takes much time Info may be incomplete Need to be quite clear about what looking for Not flexible means to get data; data restricted to what already exists Observation (Correlation and Relationship with other assets) Was used to gather accurate information about how a program actually operates, particularly about processes View operations of a program as they are actually occurring Can adapt to events as they occur Can be difficult to interpret seen behaviors Can be complex to categorize observations Can influence behaviors of program participants Can be expensive Case Studies (Other Technique) Was used at some point to fully understand client's experiences in a program, and conduct comprehensive examination through cross comparison of cases Fully depicts client's experience in program input, process and results Powerful means to portray program to outsiders Usually quite time consuming to collect, organize and describe Represents depth of information, rather than breadth The summary in this table has also been done under four sub-topics that define the methods used and these areas are: Return, Risk, Correlation and Relationship with other assets and other techniques and the corresponding methods to these four areas are indicated in brackets as shown in the table above. Analysis Commodity Indices and Returns In brief, commodity indices are meant to take into consideration returns on holdings in such sectors as energy, agriculture and livestock. This decade has seen the invention of investable commodity indices that are based on the future price of commodities rather than the traditional way of considering commodities’ underlying prices (Schittich, 2003). The following exhibits show the risk and return performance of commodity indices and a number of asset-class bench marks in this sustainable investment project over a period of five years. The benchmarks of traditional investment that are there have include the MSCI World Equity Index (MSCI), the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500), the Lehman Global Bond Index (Lehman Global Bond), and the Lehman U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (Lehman U.S. Bond) (Schittich, 2003). Correlation Calculation Exhibit 1 Performance Measures with Annual Return and Standard Deviation Commodity Index Performance BCI SPGSCI DJ-AIG 4.9% Annualized Total Return* 10.3% 2.8% Annualized St. Dev. 12.8% 21.0% 14.5% Sharpe Ratio 0.49 0.03 0.10 Maximum Drawdown -31.4% -62.2% -49.4% Correlation with BCI 1.00 0.94 0.92 Correlation with SPGSCI 0.94 1.00 0.90 Correlation with DJ-AIG 0.92 0.90 1.00 MSCI U.S. and Global Stock and Bond Index Performance U.S. and Global Stock and Bond Index Performance S&P 500 Lehman U.S. Bond MSCI World Eq Lehman Global Bond CISDM Hedge Fund CISDM CTA Annualized Total Return** 7.9% 7.0% 5.6% 7.0% 12.9% 8.7% Annualized St. Dev. 14.4% 3.9% 14.3% 5.4% 7.4% 9.2% Sharpe Ratio 0.30 0.65 0.15 0.47 1.10 0.48 Maximum Drawdown -44.7% -5.1% -46.8% -10.1% -21.1% -9.4% Correlation with BCI 0.09 0.01 0.19 0.11 0.27 0.22 Correlation with SPGSCI 0.12 0.03 0.21 0.12 0.31 0.14 Correlation with DJ-AIG 0.19 0.05 0.29 0.18 0.36 0.20 * Total Return Indices include the return of 91-day Treasury Bill yield. ** Includes reinvestment of dividends and interests. CISDM Indices are net of manager fees. Portfolio Performance Analysis/calculations The following Exhibit is an analysis of the benefits of adding portfolios of traditional assets to commodities. Details are indicated in Exhibit 2 below. Exhibit 2: Multiple Asset Class Portfolio Performance Jan 2005 to Dec 2009 U.S. Portfolios Portfolio I Portfolio II Portfolio III Portfolio IV Equal Weights S&P 500 and Lehman U.S. Bond 90% Portfolio I and 10% BCI 90% Portfolio I, 5% HF, 5% CTA 80% Portfolio I, 10% BCI, 5% HF, 5%CTA Annualized Returns 7.7% 8.1% 8.1% 8.4% Annualized St. Dev 7.6% 7.1% 7.1% 6.6% Sharpe Ratio 0.45 0.52 0.52 0.60 Maximum Drawdown -21.0% -19.5% -19.1% -18.2% Correlation BCI 0.09 0.26 0.11 0.30 Global Portfolios Portfolio V Portfolio VI Portfolio VII Portfolio VIII Equal Wt MSCI and Lehman Global 90% Portfolio V and 10% BCI 90% Portfolio V, 5% HF, 5% CTA 80% Portfolio V, 10% BCI, 5% HF, 5%CTA Annualized Returns 6.6% 7.0% 7.0% 7.5% Annualized St. Dev 8.1% 7.7% 7.6% 7.2% Sharpe Ratio 0.29 0.36 0.36 0.44 Maximum Drawdown -25.4% -24.3% -23.2% -22.6% Correlation BCI 0.20 0.36 0.22 0.39 Direct Equity Investment. The following Exhibit shows the impact of direct equity investment. Exhibit 3: Commodity Sector Returns vs Equity Sector Returns (2004 to 2008) Annual Return Standard Deviation Sharpe Ratio Maximum Drawdown Correlation with BCI Sector Energy BCI Energy Sector 17.0% 24.9% 0.58 -40% 1.00 S&P 500 Energy Index 10.1% 19.2% 0.38 -41% 0.47 S&P 500 Oil & Gas Drilling Index 8.3% 40.6% 0.29 -71% 0.48 S&P 500 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index 9.1% 30.2% 0.30 -52% 0.55 Metals BCI Industrial Metals Sector 10.2% 19.0% 0.38 -33% 1.00 S&P 500 Diversified Metals & Mining Index 2.8% 39.3% 0.17 -79% 0.57 Agriculture BCI Agriculture Sector 4.2% 10.4% 0.03 -27% 1.00 S&P 500 Food Retail Index -0.3% 19.8% (0.13) -66% 0.04 S&P 500 Food Distribution Index 7.5% 20.5% 0.25 -42% 0.08 S&P 500 Agriculture Products Index 12.2% 30.5% 0.39 -55% 0.09 Precious Metals BCI Precious Metals 4.7% 11.9% 0.08 -27% 1.00 S&P 500 Gold Index -0.3% 38.0% 0.06 -71% 0.62 AMEX Gold Bugs Index 4.7% 39.9% 0.20 -82% 0.71 Exhibit 4: Performance of BCI, SPGSCI & DJ-AIG Commodity Indices (2001-2008) Annual Returns Standard Deviation Sharpe Ratio Maximum Drawdown Correl. BCI Sectors Correl. GSCI Sub-Indices Correl. DJ-AIG Sub-Indices BCI 8.9% 14.8% 0.43 -31% 1.00 0.95 0.93 SPGSCI -0.5% 25.6% (0.01) -62% 0.95 1.00 0.90 DJ-AIG 3.0% 17.7% 0.08 -49% 0.93 0.90 1.00 Agriculture BCI Agriculture 4.4% 11.8% 0.16 -24% 1.00 0.89 0.92 SPGSCI Agriculture -3.2% 20.8% (0.20) -46% 0.89 1.00 0.96 DJ-AIG Agriculture 0.8% 20.7% (0.01) -45% 0.92 0.96 1.00 Energy 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BCI Energy 9.2% 25.6% 0.34 -40% 1.00 0.95 0.96 SPGSCI Energy -1.1% 33.8% 0.05 -69% 0.95 1.00 0.96 DJ-AIG Energy -2.6% 34.5% 0.01 -69% 0.96 0.96 1.00 Industrial Metals BCI Industrial Metals 16.5% 21.1% 0.68 -33% 1.00 0.87 0.89 SPGSCI Industrial Metals 5.8% 23.7% 0.22 -60% 0.87 1.00 0.99 DJ-AIG Industrial Metals 6.2% 24.4% 0.24 -60% 0.89 0.99 1.00 Precious Metals BCI Precious Metals 9.5% 14.4% 0.48 -27% 1.00 0.96 0.94 SPGSCI Precious Metals 14.5% 17.9% 0.68 -30% 0.96 1.00 0.98 DJ-AIG Precious Metals 14.1% 19.2% 0.62 -34% 0.94 0.98 1.00 Livestock BCI Livestock 5.0% 10.8% 0.22 -25% 1.00 0.93 0.94 SPGSCI Livestock -4.3% 15.5% (0.41) -40% 0.93 1.00 0.98 DJ-AIG Livestock -5.4% 16.1% (0.46) -41% 0.94 0.98 1.00 Grains BCI Grains 6.6% 17.1% 0.28 -32% 1.00 0.95 0.96 SPGSCI Grains -1.6% 23.8% (0.08) -47% 0.95 1.00 0.97 DJ-AIG Grains 1.4% 24.4% 0.05 -47% 0.96 0.97 1.00 Softs BCI Softs -5.0% 16.9% (0.40) -34% 1.00 - 0.86 DJ-AIG Softs -5.2% 22.1% (0.27) -46% 0.86 - 1.00 A look at the performance of First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) for the past few days indicate just how economically viable investment in solar energy stocks is. The table below shows this (Tzempelikos, & Athienitis, 2007). Table 4. Table for First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) for Five Days. From this table, it can be seen that the stocks shot $ 164 to a whooping $ 236 in a matter of just five days which translates into 44 percent increase in just five days. The same trend was observable with SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) which in the same period had a 32 percent increase climbing from $ 62 to $ 83. This is shown in the table below (Vecchia, Formisano, Rosselli & Ruggi, 1981). Table 5. Table for SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) for Five Days. These increases were part of First Solar’s highest fourth-quarter earnings where the company earned $ 62.9 million (which translates to about 77 cents per cent). This was a major lip in comparison to what the company earned in the same period a year ago where the company had posted earnings of $ 8million (translating to 12 cents per share) (Vecchia, Formisano, Rosselli & Ruggi, 1981). In 2006 the company had posted revenues of $ 52.7 million which increased in 2008 to $ 200.8 million and this represented almost quadrupling of the revenues in the previous fiscal year (Tzempelikos, & Athienitis, 2007). The reason for this boost and significant revenues are attributable to the following aspects of the business (Yergin, 1991): A boost in production Decreased cost per watt and Using less polysilicon via a thin film process and Continued demand The point that this data implies is that solar energy is increasingly becoming cheaper and more convenient to use over time. In fact, First Solar reports that it has been able to produce solar modules for as little as $ 1.12 per watt a report that fueled the debate of whether solar energy has the capacity to reach grid parity. Grid parity is the point where its price can favourably compete with those of traditional sources of energy (Zedtwitz, Petrasch, Trommer & Steinfeld, 2006). According to Stephen O’Rourke (Deutsche Bank Securities’ semiconductor capital equipment and materials’ senior analysts), solar energy is anticipated to reach grid parity in the next three years. This is based on the 4.5 percent growth rate of prices of electricity and the fall in costs due to photovoltaic technologies that have been observable in the past seven years (Zedtwitz, Petrasch, Trommer & Steinfeld, 2006). He further surmises that the cost per watt will fall to as little as 50 cents in the coming years owing to the same reasoning. The chart below shows the outlook of the current photovoltaic industry (Zedtwitz, Petrasch, Trommer & Steinfeld, 2006). Chart 1. Showing the outlook of the current photovoltaic industry It is however appreciable to note that there is an anticipation of a shake up in the industry due to the weeding out of inferior technologies with time. This however should be a big worry to would-be-investors since there is a growing demand that is steadily increasing which is going to effectively shield against the anticipated volatility among manufacturers involved in solar-related products (Tzempelikos & Athienitis, 2007). Here is where there has also been an avenue for solar installers and even though opportunities in this area is limited, there have been IPOs which are willingly giving savvy investors great inroads and opportunities in the solar industry (Tzempelikos & Athienitis, 2007). Conclusion From this research indicated from the preceding discussion, it is a clear indication that investment in solar energy is a viable venture that really creates great opportunities for entrepreneurs. In a world that is growing conscious to environmental conservation, investment in solar energy provides a comfortable avenue through which the fight for conservation of the environment in bid of reducing deleterious effects of global warming provides a perfect avenue for that. The energy is renewable and does not affect the environment in any significant manner especially in comparison to the level of damage that is done to the environment by other forms of energy such as fuel from coal, oil and firewood (Schittich, 2003). Not only is solar energy eco-friendly, it is also renewable since energy from the sun can never get depleted. This makes an investment that is based on such energy sustainable and dependable since there is no risk of losing raw materials for the manufacture of merchandise for trade (Bénard, Gobin & Gutierrez, 1981). There are however a number of limitations that limit the scope of this research. This research finds first limitation in its scope of application. It has based all its research on solar energy as a viable investment venture and therefore has mainly incorporated studies and data from established corporations making its capacity to reflect the case for upcoming companies and even individuals untenable. The other limitation for this research is in determining the extent to which investment in solar energy can be harnessed to replace traditional forms of energy. This research does not give insights of whether (or when if at all) this can ever materialize. 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