TourismReference: 10Introduction: Patterns of tourism demand are shaped by a number of factors that include economic position of regions or countries, degrees of urbanization and the overall quality of life (World Tourism Organization report, 1995). These factors of tourism as outlined by a report of the World Tourism Organization in 1996 can be enlisted as, economic and financial development, demographic and social changes, technological innovations and improvements, infrastructural equipment and facility investments, political, legislative and regulatory factors, environment planning and climatic impact issues, trading developments and the safety of travel.
These are the exogenous factors that affect tourism in any given country at a particular point in time. Beside these factors there are other key market forces that directly have an impact on the demand for, and supply and distribution of tourism products and services (Swarbrooke and Horner, 105). These factors include: First, consumer knowledge about tourism possibilities and tourist requirements; second, destination product development and product/services development by the private sector operators; third, trends in the structure of travel and the tourism operating sectors; fourth, marketing undertaken by the country looking to attract tourist traffic; and last, the supply of skilled and experienced human resources.
Executive Summary: The following report shall seek to identify the factors that govern demand for tourism in Hong Kong and on the basis of these findings investigate the future on tourism in Hong Kong over the next decade. An accurate forecast of tourism demand is essential for the formulation of a sustainable tourism policy. It is to this end that paper will address the issues related to change in the tourism demand patterns outlining factors affecting this change including political, environmental factors, and other external factors.
The promotion and marketing strategies that have been employed and how these had an impact on the actual number of tourism traffic. It will also look to investigate the pull factors the impact of the emerging markets on the tourism industry. Finally the report shall seek to address the issues of market segmentation, outline popular tourism products and the key trends and challenges. Measures and importance of tourism demand forecasting: The tourism industries and those interested in their success need to reduce the risks associated with a decision that would not yield the results that were initially expected out of it (Fretchling, 5).
It is here that the importance of effective tourism demand patterns becomes very important. The tourism product is perishable, the people that are involved in the production of the tourism product are usually inseparable from the product, customer satisfaction is dependent on complimentary services, leisure tourism demand is extremely susceptible to the impacts of human and man made disasters and tourism supply requires large and long time investments.
There is therefore a need for planning and forecasts that would predict demand and its patterns so that the preparation for supply can b made in advance. The measurement o tourism demand in Hong Kons is determined mostly by the Hong Kong tourism forecasting system (Song, 56). There are a number of methods that are used for tourism demand pattern forecasting (Page and Connell, 50). These include the qualitative methods like single moving average, single exponential smoothing, double exponential smoothing, classical decomposition and auto regression. There are also the casual methods that include regression analysis and structural ecometric methods.
Finally, the qualitative efforts are, the jury of executive opinion, subjective probability method and Delphi method. There are also, of course the seasonal patterns that would need to be considered.