Importance of Crowd Control in Evacuation - Research Proposal Example

Research proposal: Importance crowd control in evacuation     1. Introduction:   1. A: Background Evacuation is an instantaneous and swift transfer technique that is aimed at the removal of large sections of populace so that they are moved away from harm that is eminent in the form of a danger a tangible threat that has already occurred. Evacuations could range from small scale evacuations like buildings at times of fire or a bomb scare to more large scale grand evacuation operations that are necessitated due to floods, bombardment or in the most common cases an approaching hurricane. In situations involving hazardous materials or possible contamination, evacuees may be decontaminated prior to being transported out of the contaminated area. As far as pre ordained and determined plans of evacuations and related strategy is concerned, it is not possible a number of times due to the fact that most evacuations-the related needs and the characteristics are often too dynamic. The idea in most cases, on the part of emergency preparedness an response agencies has been to effect work from a more general framework that would permit flexibility to respond to rapidly changing situations.   1. B: Need for evacuations: In most cases it is correct to assume that evacuation procedures are related to hurricanes. This however must not belie the fact that the need to evacuate might arise from many different man-made and natural events. Worldwide, evacuations have been used as a protective action against hazards such as volcanoes, wildfires, floods, tsunami-generating earthquakes, storms, chemical spills, nuclear power plant accidents, and most recently, terrorist attacks. Evacuations are by nature disruptive and expensive, they cn also become politically sensitive issues-the orders are difficult to make given the fact that the movement and development of hazards can change over shorter periods of time. The scope and breadth of evacuation must be proportional to the threat, it must not however be so unnecessarily large hat it needlessly disrupts economic activity or worse lead to the “boy who cried wolf” perception within the realms of the public domain.   The level of interest in evacuation as a behavioral, geographic, research, planning and engineering-related model of discussion has ebbed and flowed with the needs and conditions of the day, and the number and the types of hazard conditions for which evacuation could become necessary is also growing. In history one has found that evacuations have at time focused on moving populations away from urban centers that could have become attack targets. With the development of sophisticated methods of weather predictions, evacuations became common phenomena in the coastal and bi-coastal areas in an attempt to save lives from the hurricane threats   2.1: Crowd Management-Importance and dynamics In order to fully understand the potential of evacuation efficiency of in an evacuation operation irrespective of its nature and its size, it would become essential that one assesses the relationships between several complex and interrelated facets to the evacuation process, especially with respect to an aspect as important as crowd control obviously is (Sui, 2008). There have been researches that have proposed a hypothetical equation where the behavior of a crowd could be determined as a function of ‘crowd characteristics (like demographic data, total number o occupants to be evacuated and such similar variables), facility design and layout (like the other logistical variables involved in the process of evaluation such as geographic and environmental facts along with area layout etc) and the management practices (like the staffing needs, communication facilities, security admissions, furnishings among others) (Ventre et. Al., 1981). In a similar vein yet other researchers have identified four criteria that they think are essential in the calculation of factors involved in the evacuation efficiency plan (Gwynne and Galea, 1997) : 1. Configurational: These are covered by the more traditional codes and regulations where the plan is concerned and cover areas such as layout, exit points and width among other things 2. Environmental: different emergency incidents effect environmental considerations of an enclosure in a variety of ways 3. Procedural: Aspects related to staffing actions and levels of occupant evacuation training, the kind of effective crowd control strategies planned and the expected successes from these 4. Behavioral: the likely behavioral responses of occupants like the initial response to evacuation cues, maximum walking speed, presence of family or friends etc. If one was to be more specific one would be able to identify the basic premise of the research in terms of the variable of the Crowd Dynamic group that would need to make usage of the various models and simulations (example: expertise and mathematical) in order to carry out an analysis of the issues that would relate to effective crowd management and the related issue in plan design and evacuation proceedings. It is imperative for one to understand the fact that secure and methodical crowd management and control could be realized only if one focuses on a method of cautious planning and study. This is important again due to the fact that ineffective crowd management would mean ineffective evacuation. Crowd modeling is essential and critical in any venue where public safety and evacuation must be addressed.   2.1: Research Question The research that the dissertation introduction proposes is an evaluation of the Importance of crowd control in order to act properly in case of evacuation. The idea here is simple. For a given evacuation operation to be successful it is essential that the crowd control dynamics of the operation be worked out and the strategized idea witness successful implementation. There are various aspects to a crowd control variable as far as the evacuation equation is concerned. It is in this context that the following research will seek to analyze the requisite success of crowd control operations for an evacuation operation to qualify as a success.To this end the research will seek to answer questions about the importance of effective crowd management strategies and also analyze some of the strategies that work and the ones that don’t along with an identification of the various strategies of crowd control in evacuation situations.       2.2: Research Benefits: The main objective of an evacuation plan is to facilitate and organize owner, occupant and emergency responder actions during emergencies (Tubbs and Meacham, 2007). An in depth research that aims to establish the importance of successful crowd control endeavors in the context of an evacuation operation would be helpful in the long run given the fact that crowd control facts would help operations in identifying factors of communication/liaison establishment with the involved groups. The work will also help further research in cases that would like to develop evacuation plans given the fact that a quantitative understanding of the importance of effective crowd management would help streamline priorities in the long run for software development professionals and emergency evacuation management staff. The study would also work with the involved group(s) and other appropriate departments to manage the event and prevent, resolve and defuse unlawful and disruptive acts. It would also help in the establishment of a more effective command structure to manage the event. Finally, Make an initial assessment and continually assess the situation.   2.3: Theory and factors involved: There are a number of factors that constitute the equation when a discussion on crowd management in terms of an evacuation situation is being carried out. Some of the factors could be identified in the following terms: 1. Crowd Movement – Where the crowd is supposed to be moved to 2. Number: The strength of the crowd that needs to be managed 3. How does the crowd movement affect the other logistical, business and other related factors in the area 4. Human Factors – how do people behave and respond to information or the conditions around them? 5. Spatial Analysis – how does the layout of a location influence movement?  6. Queuing and arrangement 7. What are the consequences of crowd dynamics on crowd safety?         2:4: Research approach: The research would be mostly positivist in its approach and would thereby focus on the formation of information a process which would have its emphasis on the model of natural science (Finch, 1986). This researcher would therefore focus the crux of the research on being objective rather than coming up with subjective conclusions based on innate perceptions. The idea would therefore be to follow a process of data collection the social world and then builds up an explanation of social life by arranging such facts in a chain of causality. This would therefore mean that the research would be try to come up with results that are outside the purview of human bias and achieve results that are objective yet pragmatic. It is for this purpose that the research methodology would be a mix of the quantitative and the qualitative method of data collection and analysis.   2:5: Research Methodology First and foremost one would need to delve into the reasoning for the choice of the qualitative research method despite the already stated intention of it being study based on the positivist approach. Given the fact that the nature of the study is such that one cannot assess importance of a certain aspect of a procedure without delving into the past, it would have to be understood that case studies become very important. A case study in any case is used for the study of a certain instance, a particular issue, feature or unit of analysis. The qualitative method although usually perceived as being subjective need not always be so. Qualitative data in this case would be based on the zero order, the multiple, partial and the interaction association coefficients will be calculated for the qualitative data. This will be achieved by using cross-classification technique proposed by Denzin and Lincoln (2000), in which the dependent variable (and in this case it is crowd control) is cross-classified with the independent variables so that the ultimate partitioning of the variation in the dependent variable is achieved just as it would be for a regression analysis in a quantitative data. This method is appropriate since the data to be collected is multivariate and hence can be presented in cross-classification. The zero order, the multiple, partial and the interaction association coefficients will be calculated for the qualitative data. This the application here is the cross-classification technique proposed by Denzin and Lincoln (2000), in which the dependent variable (and in this case it is crowd control) is cross-classified with the independent variables so that the ultimate partitioning of the variation in the dependent variable is achieved just as it would be for a regression analysis in a quantitative data. This method is appropriate since the data to be collected is multivariate and hence can be presented in cross-classification.   Secondly, the study would also utilize the case study analysis method. Of the three types of existing case studies, (exploratory, descriptive and explanatory), the following research would focus on the first. An exploratory case study is useful for most business purposes- a pilot case study could be used as a basis for formulating questions or hypothesis testing (Noor, 2008). In this case, one would have to study in some detail some of the bigger known instances of evacuation proceedings so that one is able to qualify the hypothesis in terms of the crowd management scenario in terms of the success and failure of the operation, thereby correlating the two factors. The biggest plus as far as the case study approach is concerned in terms of the advantages that it would yield is the fact that it could lead to generalizations given the fact that multiple cases analysis could very well lead to replication. The second aspect of the methodology is the application of the quantitative method of analysis that would seek to substantiate the analysis put forward by the literature review and the case study analysis (Abeyasekera and Lawson-McDowall, 2000). The method by nature is useful in the measurement of demographic and personal attributes. The point of usage here is due to the fact that the method is used in terms of large samples (up to full census) with a lot of stress on a high rate of response. The tool to be used in this case would be the standardized questionnaire, that would take the shape of the 5-point Likert survey.       2.6: Research limitations Just like other studies of this form, this study also has its limitations. The most notable limitation in the study is existence of method bias.  Because of the use of a single questionnaire for collecting the data, the relationships, which exist between constructs under study, may be rather inflated. In addition to this, it was noted that there exists a lot of apathy towards participation in research. This is possibly explained by the fact that there are many studies carried given the fact that evacuation is part of the growing genre of disaster management studies. This would naturally lead to increasing interest and hence many studies in the recent past that have all focused on some part of the effective evacuation process aimed at the construction of the perfect evacuation plan. Because of the negative attitude, there were relatively low return rates of the questionnaires, leading to a possible compromise on the reliability of the research findings (l-Aameri, 2003).     Costs and Timings The research would be completed over a period of six months. It would require a collection of five volunteers, for the work of case study collection (facts, figures and data analysis), data formulation and collection. This would mean that even if the questions are circulated online, one would have to gather a tam of some experts in the field as respondents if the study has to have any credibility. The study would also need the usage of five computers and two printers. The total cost of the research in terms of travel costs, library usage, travel and miscellaneous expenses would be about $5000.   Definitions: a)      Disaster – is a sudden or great calamity leading to deep distress affecting man and materials b)       Emergency / Serious accidents / disasters – there may or may not necessarily be the out come of train accidents , but have the potential to cause loss of life or injury to human beings and prolonged distress to all those involved unless in an effective manner c)      Accidents - occurrences where safety has been affected but disasters are those situations which cause acute distress to passengers.   Chapter Summary One could summarise the chapter in terms of it being a research proposal that has outlined the issue at stake. The chapter has outlined the hypothesis that the research has put forward thereby outlining the importance of the research and the justification for its execution. It also has also tried to chalk out the contesting issues that the research would have to encounter over the duration of its progress and the methods that the research will make use of over the next six months. In order to continue with the research the proposal has outlined a sum of the literature review that would outline the focus of the research till date thereby helping this researcher in streamlining the project and in coming up with results that would pave the way for the development of future models of crowd control and management in evacuation situations.                                             Reference: Abrahams, John: "Fire escape in difficult circumstances", chapter 6, In: Stollard, 1994, "Design against fire".   Sui D Z, 2008, Geospatial technologies and homeland security, pub, Springer Books, p220   Tubbs J S and Meacham B J, 2007, Egress design solutions: a guide to evacuation and crowd management planning, pub, Wiley Books, p335   Keith G, 2005, Testimony to Senate House Committee (USA), accessed January 25, 2010,                Denzin, K. N. & Lincoln, S. Y. (2000). Handbook of qualitative research (2nd Ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications               Finch, J., 1986, Research and Policy, pub, The Falmer Press, London, pp6-10   Abeyasekera, S. and Lawson-McDowall, J, 2000, Computerising and Analysing Qualitative Information from a Case Study Concerning Activity Diaries, pub, Case study produced as part of DFID research project R7033   Noor K B M, 2008, Case Study: A Strategic Research Methodology, pub, American Journal of Applied Sciences,Vol. 5 No.11, pp1602-1604, 2008     Gwynne, S, Galea, E.R, 1997, Escape as a social behavior , pub, National Fire Safety Engineering Organization, p87   J. J. Fruin. Crowd Disasters—A System Evaluation of Causes and Countermeasures. Proc, Experts' Workshop on Crowd Ingress to Places of Assembly, F. T. Ventre el.al, 1981 Read More