Evaluation of the Retail and Industrial Vacancy Rates for the City of Canterbury - Case Study Example

EVALUATION OF THE RETAIL AND INDUSTRIAL VACANCY RATES FOR THE CITY OF CANTERBURY REPORT Phillip Spirkovski, Mahmudul Hossain, Olivia Sanoubane and Hansheng (Kevin) Zhang Western Sydney University - Economics & Finance Engagement Project Group 6 March 2016 Executive summary Canterbury is a city which is located in Australia. It is a city in the state of New South Wales region. It is located southwest of Sydney, ten kilometers from the central business district of Sydney. The city has been in tremendous growth for the past ten years; many structures have been set up, and many industries have been developed. The population of the city is also growing rapidly due to the economic boom in the city. Many industries are set up to absorb the increasing manpower in the city. One of the unique factors of the town is the diversity experienced in the city; there are many nationalities and races in the city. Many religions have developed, and different languages are spoken by various people in the city. Canterbury enjoys substantial peace and co-existence amongst its residents. The report developed is going to analyzed various industries in the city and also the rate of employment that is experienced in the city. The population demography of the town indicates that the town has more aging people and hence the need for the development of funds to aid the needy. This indicates that the city needs to have a large workforce to compensate for the elderly people who are dropping out of work. Various industries should be able to get sufficient supply of labor when the elderly people are relieved from duty. The city has a population of 146,000 from the 2012 census, 45% of the population were Australian-born individuals. The proportion of female and male are equal in the residential areas of the Canterbury City. The average for the population in the city was thirty-five years; the children make up twenty percent of the population of the city. The city has more than 10 % of its population being sixty-five years and above. The remaining population is youth from the age of 15 – 45 years of age. Table of content 1 Executive summary………………………………………………...2. 2 Introduction ......................................................................................4. Aims and objectives………………………………………………...5 Methodology………………………………………………………...5 1.1 Background ..................................................................................6. 3 Findings .............................................................................................7. 4 Discussion…………………………………......…………………...11. Trends……………………………………………………………12. Zoning in different areas………………………………………...13. 5 Analysis……………………………………………………………...14. Vacancy rates………………………………………………………...14. Culture……………………………………………………………….15. Demographic change…………………………………………………...16. Business activities………………………………………………………17. 6 Economic model………………………………………………………….18. 7 Risk management…………………………………………………19. 8 Ethics……………………………………………………………...20. 9 Conclusion……………………………………………………….21. 10 Recommendation………………………………………………….21. 11 References…………………………………………………………22. 12 Appendix……………………………………………………………27. Introduction The group will be conducting various research in the city of Canterbury to determine the population, industries, culture, diversity, demography, property market, business activities and transport. The analysis will be done based on the data collected by various group members, and an economic model will be formulated to simplify the understanding of the city’s vacancy rates and the factors affecting vacancy rates. The report would be able to analyze the retail rates and the vacancy rates in the city of Canterbury. The project we are establishing will look into the retail and industrial vacancy rates and deem if these vacancy rates are an issue for the city of Canterbury. Canterbury council has stated this is the most diverse city. Therefore, we assume it is diverse in background, age and the type of services/products offered. The city is experiencing a decline in retail business, and there is a decrease in the vacancies in various residential areas in the city. However, the population of the city is enjoying a lot of diversity; there is a lot to be done on the economic level experienced in the town. Canterbury is one of the most diverse cities in Australia. The population demography indicates a lot about the nationalities which do business in the city. This report is aimed at determining how diversity may be affecting the retail business and industries in the city. The impact of diversity on the vacancy rates experienced in the city. There are also factors like the setup of the city, the plan which has been used in the development of the city and how this affects the business premises and distribution of customers. The plan of the city is highly likely to affect the exposure of various businesses to its customers. This also affects the industries whereby the residents of the city will be working. The hypothesis of this group will give more information on the vacancy rates of the city and how it has an influence on the economy of the region. The proposal developed in this report will outline the possible factors to find the correlation to various issues affecting the town. The recommendation also provides the way out of solving the various issue that arises due to the vacancy rates and retail industry in the city. This will be able to provide the social and economic benefits that are experienced in the city due to the proposal. The stakeholders that we would be connecting with are the businesses in the town centers and industrial area, real estate agents and the council regulatory services. Aims and objectives of the report The main aim of the report will be to determine the vacancy rates in the city of Canterbury. Factors that affect the vacancy rates in the city and also the way population of the city has led to the development of the city. The following are the aims of the report; Determining the outcomes of the vacancy rates Outlining how the population has influenced the vacancy rates in the city Explaining how demography, ethnicity, business activities impact the development of property in the city Methodology The group will use the various method in the research; both qualitative and quantitative methods assure that the needed information is included in the report. Members of the group will conduct research by visiting various places in the city and recording important values to be used in the generation of the report. The consultation will also be used a way of gathering information that might not have been recorded in the existing databases. The group members will be able to interact with the people in the city and share various views on how the city is running. There would be charts and graphs developed from the information collected to simply analyses the data collected. Background The background of this report will give basic information based on the data collected by the group members. Background information on population, culture, demography and other factors that are deemed to have a possibility of affecting the vacancy rates in the city. The vacancy rates that are experienced in the city and the population of the city. The employment rate is affected by the following factors in the city; diversity affects the rate of employment in any setup this is due to the interaction between various people of diverse groups. When there is a language barrier amongst people in a certain setup like Canterbury, the employment of people to work in certain firms might depend on the language they speak. The report will be able to determine the available jobs in the market, the industries that are available and how they influence the vacancy rates in the city. The report will also be able to determine the influence of population growth on the retail rates. The city is experiencing reduced retail business, and hence, it can be attributed to the level of population growth in the city of Canterbury. The report will be able to provide more information on the vacancy rates in the city. This is some of the key factors that are significant in the development of any city. When there are increased retail rates, it will mean that the city is experiencing shortages in the supply of various housings. This is influenced by the number of properties that have been developed in the city. The housing and residential industry are entirely dependent on the level of retail rates that are experienced in the city. When the number of real estate developments reduces then the demand for residential houses remains constant, there is a high chance of experiencing shortages in the supply and hence increasing the vacancy rates. The industrial vacancy rates are also influenced by the population in the city. When the demand is low, there is a high possibility of increased industrial vacancy rates since many real estate developers will close down various operations. The report will be able to look into the issues that arise in the industry rate of employment in the city of Canterbury (Rural, 2007). The report will be able to provide a wider view of how the city has been planned. The suburbs and residential areas that are available in the city. This will be able to give more information on the vacancy rates and various retail businesses in the city. The retail business that is developed in the city due to increased business centers which are vacant. The transport sector also has a greater influence in the development of any region. For Canterbury, there is a relatively well-developed transport system as we are going to discuss in this report. The report will be able to provide various information on how the transport system affects the vacancy rates in the city and how this system will influence retail rates in Canterbury (Bramley, 2010, pp 234-250). Findings Data on population Number of people in the city is approximated to be 146,314 people as from the census conducted in 2012. From the information above, 45% of the population were Australian-born individuals. The proportion of female and male are equal in the residential areas of the Canterbury City. The average for the population in the city was thirty-five years; the children make up twenty percent of the population of the city. The city has more than 10 % of its population being sixty-five years and above. The remaining population is youth from the age of 15 – 45 years of age. This is shown in the table below Total Population 144,314 Number of Males 68,709 Number of females 68,744 Non-Australian born 66,045 Australian born 78,269 Data on business activities There are several business activities that are conducted in Canterbury. A lot of industries have developed in the city, the following are some of the industries; wholesale trade, health care & social assistance, ownership of dwellings, retail trade, Manufacturing, construction, financial & insurance services, education & training, postal & warehousing, transport, professional, scientific & technical services, agriculture, hiring & real estate services, accommodation & hospitality, forestry & fishing, mining, rental. The gross regional product of Canterbury was approximately 407 billion in 2012, showing an increment of 0.6% when compared to previous year. This shows that City contributed 1.1% to the GRP of Sydney. The chart below shows the breakdown of various industries and their contribution. Data on housing Development of property in the town has been increasing over the past ten years. This is due to increase demands. The following data indicates the housing and property development in the city. There is an indication that 2300 houses were developed for the past eight years ending 2012. The multi-dwelling houses are the leading projects to be developed. Dual housing projects are also among the highly developed property by 23%, and the mixed housing projects make up 19%. 18% are residential buildings; this gives a total of 93% housings developed for the past eight years. The following figure indicates the breakdown. Data on demography The population of the city is considered one of the most diverse in the whole region. The city has a variety of languages ranging from English, which is widely used in Chinese, Portuguese and others. Languages % of people speaking Chinese languages 9.8 English 30.2 Vietnamese 4.2 Arabic 10.4 Greek 8.9 Korean 2.0 Bengali 4.6 Others 29.9 The population also can be broken down; there are many aged people in the city due to the increasing life expectancy. 13.6% of the population are aged above 65 years is of the total population as per the statistics of 2012 census. 45% of the population are Australian born, and 14.2% are Chinese. Portuguese and Greek make up of 13% of the total population. Data on transport network The transport sector of the town consists of roads, rail, transit and bus services. The rail network is linked with the transit and bus stations. These terminals are built in major trading centers in the city like Roselands. The park racecourse is also linked with various bus station as shown in the road map of the city. Discussion According to the data collected, there is much indication of increasing industrial vacancy rates. This is evident in most parts of the city. In 2011, there were approximately fifty-six percent households which had already purchased their premises fully. The fully owned premises had reduced as per the projection in 2011. People who were paying mortgage had increased by approximately seventeen hundred people in the city. 528 people are established to be living in private rentals. Those people who lived in social housing were 87 people. It is established that 5,3% vacancy rate is experienced in private dwellings in comparison to the whole of Sydney which has a vacancy rate of 6.9%. This indicates that there is a strong base for investors who are interested in real estate development in Canterbury. Trends From the information collected, it shows that almost 35 percent of household rent their properties. This is 4.5 percent greater than that of Sydney. The rental housing in Canterbury has been concentrating on residential flats in areas like Banks town line. Owner-occupied premises and mortgage free houses are in the suburbs of Riverwood and Punchbowl. The local government association provides housing to many people in the city. The houses are normally accessible to low-income individuals. It classes up to $374 weekly when it is compared to Sydney. This is important since the residential areas are located close to the city of Sydney. The cost of various housing is indicated in the table below. The cost of different apartments and medium houses in Canterbury are more affordable compared to those located in Sydney. The medium houses are cheaper in Canterbury as compared to those in Sydney. Zoning in different areas Large regions in the city of Canterbury are identified to be zoned to allow various forms of housing like the development of villas and townhouses. However, there has been the development of land in this region to allow multiple housing and social occupancy. There is an increase in the development of small dwelling housing in the region. There is also an increase in the redevelopment of small dwelling houses which are demolished to give room for the development of large dwelling houses. There is an increase in demand for social housing in Canterbury. The New South Wales state has provided social housing in the city through the department of housing. There are many social houses in the suburbs of Narwee and Riverwood. Social housing is Narwee sum up to 18.7% of the total houses rented in the city. 46 % of the residential houses in Riverwood north are also social houses. Canterbury has been identified by the local government as high demands region for developers who are interested in a zone for social housing. The following are some of the areas where the development of social housing is increasing; Roseland, Riverwood, Narwee, and Punchbowl. There are about forty thousand social houses in the Canterbury and Riverwood. This makes up 10% of the regional social housing in central Sydney. Most of this houses are two bedrooms and a few four bedrooms. Analysis Industrial vacancy rates The data collected on the retail rates from various research and analysis are discussed in this section. The housing sector in Canterbury also has a greater impact on the economy of the city. The availability of sufficient space to rent for industrial activities enables economy of the city to increase. The draft metro strategy points out the significance of the industrial land rates. This is land which is sustaining various activities in different industries. Transport industry in Canterbury depends on the land available for development of railway line, motorways, roads, ports, terminals, and airports. Industrial lands facilitate the development of various enterprises in the city. This uses to enable the whole community to operates without a lot of difficulties. The rates of this lands are normally affected by zoning, culture, availability of parking and industries in the region. However, the industrial land is under constant threat of rezoning in various regions of the city. This has prompted the local government association to put in place various strategies to ensure that there is consistent rezoning in different parts of the city. The rezoning should be done in places where it is directly linked to the key infrastructures. Contributes to the important cluster of the industry The level of impact on the on land stocks Consider the future use of the industrial land before rezoning There should be an appropriate alternative to the rezoned land and premises. Rezoning is one of the variables which influence the economic model of a particular region or city. When rezoning occurs there is a high chance of economic disturbance, the disturbance can be either positive or negative. When rezoning is done it influences the trading activities in the region and hence the vacancy rates of that particular region. When there is rezoning that influence industries like transport and manufacturing, there is the greater impact it has on the economy of that region. When region experiences rezoning and the residential buildings are evacuated, this will affect the rates in that region. There will be more people demanding housing and hence reduction in vacancy rates. There will be more developers trying to balance the market and hence increasing the economy of that particular region. The residential development scheme is used to determine the opportunities that are there when zoning is done and new residential development of Canterbury. Culture According to Harrison, and Baird, (2014, pp 21-24), Canterbury is considered one of the cities which has the most diverse society in Sydney. From the research, we are going to collect various information concerning the culture of the society. What people like doing in the city, the practices which are seen to be affecting the vacancy rates in the city. Most societies which practice various cultures normally have a greater impact on the way people will exist in a certain area. There are some cultural practices which do not favor the existence of others who do not practice the same. There are some cultures which also encourage peaceful coexistence amongst various neighborhoods. Activities like sports and cultural festivals have been experienced in the past in the city of Canterbury. These activities hold many people in the city together, the indigenous Australians who participate in activities like aboriginal culture celebrations which bind people together has a greater impact. These cultural activities done in various cities encourage people to stay in a particular place. The Portuguese, who live in Riverwood, practice their culture and hence they normally stay in those places for a long time hence reducing the vacancy rates in the suburbs. Various activities like sports encourage people to stay in a particular place. This has influenced much on the social housing since people would always like to be appreciated in participation hence they don’t move out of those social houses. The culture also gives prestige to various people who live in the residential areas of Canterbury. Many people living in the city believe their original ancestry was in that location hence they live there for a long time. The vacancy rates in such places have been constant, and hence, the development of new apartments will always get enough residents and thus reducing the vacancy rates in that region, people will always want to take care of their culture and hence will want to occupy a certain position and thus to influence the economy of that particular region. There are many cultures which are practices in the city as seen from the diversity of the city. The Chinese have their culture, and hence, they practice it in their premises. This will always make them live in that residence for a very long time. Demographic change The composition of people in a particular place is significant for the development of rental houses in that location. The population of Canterbury has been increasing in the past ten years as shown in the data collected in the field. This has a direct impact on the development of premises in various suburbs. The more the individuals who need housing then, the more the houses being developed. The vacancy rates have been increasing in the city; this is due to the development of various housings which eventually reduces the rental rates and hence affected by the population increase. There has been an increasing cost of rental properties due to the relatively low development of housing facilities in the city. The cost of the transaction from the rental markets has been decreasing in the home market compared to the migrants who arrive in Canterbury as cited in (Taylor, et al., 2015, pg. 24). This has been attributed to the reduction of inflation caused by inflow migration in various parts of the city. The increasing elderly people in the city is also proving to be creating an increase in the vacancy rates due to the local government’s action to host the elderly. The aging population is due to the increasing life expectancy rates and fall in the fertility of the population in the whole country. This will mean that the elderly will not be able to pay their rates and hence taken to the governmental homes. The improvement in technology has led to the increased life expectancy and hence the distribution of the population is experienced in various cities in Australia. From various sources, the population of people aged above 65 years old was 2.8 million. The latest report on population indicates that by 2013 the number of people aged above 65 years has increased to 5.8 million. This indicates that the elderly in the society make up to 14% of the total population. It is projected that the population of aged people will increase to about seven million in the year 2030. However, it is projected that the population of the elderly will not increase any further by 2030. Business in Canterbury There are many industries in Canterbury ranging from hospitality to transport. The manufacturing industries in the city are like clothing company are located in Canterbury. The city is well known for its growing town centers, sporting facilities, scenic parks, and recreational facilities. The transport industry is well placed due to the topography of the city. The rails, motorways, and freight lines make up the city’s transport industry. Economic model From the data collected and the discussion above, we can generate an economic model which will be able to solve the issue of vacancy rates in the city. The model contains the following variables; income, zoning in surrounding areas, culture, parking, current industries in the council, availability of property, types of retail stores and types of restaurants multicultural  Income – this is the earning which are accrued from various activities in the city. Income affect the vacancy rates of the city since people are able to obtain various housing types depending on their income. From the statistics collected on the income of people in the city the following equation will hold. Y ibt = e [δ i + β (t − b) + V it] Y ibt this is the total earnings of an individual per month, t this is the time taken by i position individual born in year b. δ and β are the earning components, V it is the error due to the exponential. Culture- this does not have much effect on the vacancy rates hence not treated as a variable in this case. Culture does not change over time hence constant and cannot be predicted. Zoning- this variable affects the vacancy rates since in the event of rezoning; individuals are forced to change their residence and hence affecting the vacancy rates in that particular region Vacancy rate will be calculated as ∑i M i /12*H – Vacancy rates for a year. ∑i Vi / H – likelihood of a house being vacant ∑i M i / 12*∑i Vi ­– average vacancy rates as a fraction of a year. Vacancy rates will then be {∑i Vi / H * [∑i M i / 12*∑i Vi ­]} where M ­i is the number of moths during a given period Vi number of spells of vacancy entered into ith house unit in that year. Iin = ∑ɣk Zkii + ui (7) where Zii is a vector of variables that determines Iin . Incidence in the ith house Ii = b0 + b1I in + ∑bjXji + ei Where b0 and b1 are the variables like zoning, parking, restaurants and other variables. Risk management There are risks that are involved in the development of the report. This risks may directly or indirectly influence the results obtained in the field. The following are some of the risks encountered. Resource risk- this are risks involved with the source of various information required to compile the report. There is some information which is not easily obtained and hence causing a shortage in the compilation of a certain variable. Inappropriate data- the data which is available from various sources are not updated, as the population data, the number of people changes within a year and census is done after ten years hence inappropriate data may be used. Small data set- the data that may be used will depend on the consistency of the economy of a particular region and hence the data used in this report will not consider the information prior to 2008. This is because of the economic depression and hence the economic model will use data for a small time less than 10 years. Human errors- there is a potential risk due to human brain undertaking some analysis and recording of data. The data may be miswritten and hence the risk of losing its original meaning and effects it has on the economic model. Technology- the software that is used in the analysis may be transferring errors from one data set to another and hence the risk of losing vital information while generating the econometric model. The hardware of various machines used may also contain defects and hence not able to produce the correct information. Scheduling- when various information was collected there are some delays in relaying the information and hence the risk of losing such information. Ethics The information provides above has considered various rights and hence no work from another source will be used without referencing. The rules and regulation of undertaking a research are followed while developing this report. The information provided is based on research done in a city and hence the privacy of various businesses and individuals are considered. Conclusion In conclusion, the vacancy rates are affected by factors ranging from income to industries. The population of Canterbury has greatly impacted the vacancy rates which are experienced in the housing sector. The large the population the more housing demanded. The development of the various residential area has been greatly increased due to the demand. Many people are shifting to social housing due to the rates which are much lower as compared to those of flats and single residential houses. The increasing number of two-bedroom dwelling houses highlights the fact that the city is experiencing an increase in its population. However, the number of residential areas developed over the past ten years are not much; the local government has been able to provide housing to the elderly and the disable and hence reducing the number of people demanding to the house. Recommendation We recommend that the council should look into solving the increasing vacancy rates by introducing a new rental scheme which will enable its citizens to acquire property at lower rates. The government should ensure that the income disparities are addressed so that the people with low income can be able to access sufficient housing. Zoning should be restricted to projects which benefit many people not a few individuals; there should a lot of factor to consider before zoning is done in the city. Zoning should be done in such a way that it will not disrupt transport route, shopping locations, and restaurants in the city. 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